League Two Betting: Go large with Merry Moore

Ronnie Moore is back in the game offering encouragement to confidence shy Hartlepool

Hartlepool are big at 4.03/1 to win under new management says Ian Lamont, whose Boxing Day tips include Portsmouth to win in the early kick-off and a high-scoring draw at Wycombe...

Portsmouth 2.111/10 v AFC Wimbledon 3.814/5; the draw 3.55/2
Friday December 26, Kick-off 13:00

Anything above evens in this division for a team as strong at home as Portsmouth has to be snapped up.

Andy Awford's men might have lost their last home match, against Accrington, but have an excellent record at Fratton Park, with just two defeats and a goal ratio of 2-1.

AFC Wimbledon have been stop start this season and, as much as they will claim the televised FA Cup third round tie against Liverpool on January 5 is not on their minds, it will be the game that all the players are looking forward to.

With Awford singing the praises of Jack Whatmough in defence - generally and particularly against Cheltenham - Pompey need to build on results like that away draw if they are to push for a play-off place.

The best way to do that is to keep on winning at home. Jed Wallace (eight league goals) now has Nigel Antangana, who scored his first on Saturday, to help him, after displacing second top scorer Craig Westcarr (5) in the side.

Opta's pointers are important here: Pompey have not lost back to back home games since November 2013, where the Dons have won one of the last eight away. 

Recommended Bet
Back Portsmouth @ 2.111/10

15:00 kick-offs
Mansfield 2.111/10 v Hartlepool 4.03/1; the draw 3.55/2

Ronnie Moore, the possibility of signing Ched Evans kicked into the long grass by the board, is still looking for another striker.

Can we expect much from Pools until Moore is actually able to sign someone in January?

Well, we should if Moore is any good as a coach, which of course his track record suggests he is, having steered Rotherham to successive promotions in 1999-2001 and enjoyed success with Tranmere.

Marlon Harewood is not the long-term answer but Joe Ironside, on loan from Sheffield United, could be. He started for the first time and scored and wants to stay longer. He was signed on November 22, so questions must be asked why he hasn't been used in more than a substitute's role already, given Hartlepool's predicament. 

Could they actually beat Mansfield, who have Robert Taylor suspended? The Stags lost their last home game, drew the previous one and have only scored more than once in a game twice at home this season. The fear factor, insists Moore, was all that stood between Tranmere and defeating Oxford, having lead. They need to overcome that pretty quickly if they are to have a chance of staying up.

Three wins and seven draws in Mansfield's last 16 matches suggest the visitors have a chance of earning something and makes the hosts' price too short. This time of year is when the teams at the bottom sink, swim or at least thrash about hard in the water - especially those under newly-appointed yet experienced managers. So the odds on Hartlepool represent a decent chance, high-odds best bet.

Recommended Bet
Back Hartlepool @ 4.03/1

York 2.0421/20 v Accrington 3.9n/a; the draw 3.9n/a

Accrington remain capable of springing surprises, drawing, or not losing by much. So, it seems that 3.9n/a is a big price for them to win on the relatively short trip to York, when they can dominate and win at somewhere like Portsmouth, who rarely lose at home.

The Minstermen have yet to win on their own turf, six draws being their best result. The price seems short on the home side. Jake Hyde has started to score regularly for the hosts, but their preference is to draw, having done so five times away and therefore in just over 50% of their games. 

Diego De Girolamo's return on loan must have given Russ Wilcox's squad a boost, but Accrington have scored a league-high 19 first-half goals this season (eight in the first 15 minutes) say Opta. 

With the last three meetings between the pair finishing 1-1 (point out Opta), I'm taking the cautious approach and laying the hosts.

Recommended Bet
Lay Accrington @ 2.0421/20

Wycombe 2.26/5 v Luton 3.814/5; the draw 3.412/5

It was a toss up between going for another juicy away price, on Plymouth to win away at 3.02/1 at Newport (Bobby and Reuben Reid the reasons), or draw hunting.

There were six from last weekend's 12 fixtures, a rare reversion to last season's overweight position. Certainly it was well above average this season.

Few, back in August, would have picked this to be a top of the table affair. But Gareth Ainsworth has done a brilliant job of forging players discarded by other clubs into a highly competitive unit. Any chairman who watches the pennies more than the action is surely taking note.

You also have to be able to nurture that bargain talent of course, which is what is happening with Paris Cowan-Hall, who has scored in each of his last four league games. The game he didn't play - the FA Cup - was the one they lost.

For the Hatters, Mark Cullen will want to add to his top-scoring eight league goals, while Luton will surely want to arrest the trend of being involved in 3-0 scorelines (Opta emphasise this has been the score in their last three games) even if two have been in their favour.

Wycombe have also scored three times in four of their last six, and conceded three in one of the others.

Opta also point out they have scored at least once in their last 15 league games, their longest such run since they also did that from September 2010-January 2011. They also top the list for clawing back points from losing positions (17) this season. 

So as well as the draw I'll be backing goals and hope these two don't confound the trend with a 0-0 bore! (Priced 10.09/1 for hardy contrarians)

Recommended Bets
Back the draw @ 3.412/5
Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.35/4

You can follow Ian on Twitter @ExMadDecathlete

P/L 2014-15

+8.83pt