Is there value on Hendricks at UFC 181?

On December 6th, Jonny Hendricks defends his UFC welterweight championship belt for the first time in a rematch against Robbie Lawler. Below, we look at the factors bettors should consider when betting on the Hendricks vs. Lawler rematch at UFC 181.

What happened at UFC 171?

Heading into what would become Hendricks-Lawler 1, Hendricks was a massive favourite, closing at 1.27. He’d just finished giving Georges St. Pierre a serious battle for the welterweight title, and there was a sense that Hendricks’ powerful punches were partially responsible for St. Pierre announcing he’d be taking an indefinite leave, immediately after the fight.

He was the heir apparent. Lawler, meanwhile has shocked the MMA world with an upset split decision win over Rory MacDonald; it was MacDonald who was tipped to eventually replace teammate St. Pierre at the top of the welterweight division. 

Lawler’s two fights since Hendricks saw him throw the 2nd and 4th most punches of his career, suggesting a recent tactical change

The fight itself was a war. Lawler, a known brawler, landed 150 significant strikes, more than twice as many as he’d ever landed in a fight, and he was still outdone by Hendricks’ 158. Hendrick's also won the takedown battle. Many felt it was Hendricks’ second takedown in the 5th round that clinched the win and the championship. All three judges scorecards had it 48-47 Hendricks.

In the match aftermath, Hendricks admitted in an interview that he’d considered bowing out of the fight in the lead up due to a sore elbow. The degree to which you think that elbow hindered his performance is probably going to be a major factor in how you bet this fight.

Dissecting the stats

A few bullet points you’ll need to consider before betting:

Robbie Lawler

      Lawler’s two fights since Hendricks - wins against Matt Brown and Jake Ellenberger - saw him throw the 2nd and 4th most punches of his career, suggesting a recent tactical change. He’s mixing it up more. Staying close does make takedowns a little tougher.

      The first fight was Lawler’s first at 5 rounds, and he’s since gained more experience in the Matt Brown fight.

      He did score two takedowns against Brown, the first he’d managed in 4 fights.

      Brawls should suit Lawler; he’s scored 19 KOs in his long career, while suffering only one, literally a decade ago. You may want to treat his chin as though he has never been KO'd.

      His career takedown defense is 65%, which may be an indicator of the difference the shoulder made to Hendricks’ game. 2/10 isn’t a huge outlier in, but against a fighter like Hendricks who averages more than 4 takedowns every 15 minutes and an accuracy of 47%, Lawler probably should have been more susceptible.

Johny Hendricks

      He threw 426 punches in the first fight. The man just doesn’t stop.

      It’s interesting that Hendricks out-struck Lawler as its something he doesn’t always do; Hendricks’ previous UFC history saw him outstrike opponents 8/12 times, but two of those were in fights that ended seconds after they began.  

      He seemingly feels no pain. Lawler landed 94% of his head strikes and Hendricks didn’t seem to care too much.

      His pedigree is in wrestling. Previously, he’d matched wrestling with GSP, perhaps the greatest MMA wrestler of all-time (forcing George to rely on punching Johny’s notoriously hard head) and prior to that, he took down Carlos Condit 12/15 times. Lawler was an all-state wrestler, but he shouldn’t be able to match up with Hendricks in that regard.

The rematch

History suggests Hendricks has a clear advantage heading into UFC 181.

In this article last year, we disclosed that 11 of 17 (and more recently, 10 of 12) headliner rematches had been won by the original victor.

Since then, there have been two headliner rematches (Henderson vs Shogun 2, Aldo vs Mendes 2), both won by the original victor, so there may be a distinct advantage there. With championship belts especially, judges seem to take the attitude that the challenger needs to be clearly better than the champion to earn the belt by decision.

Hendricks seemingly feels no pain. Lawler landed 94% of his head strikes and he didn’t seem to care too much.

Beyond that, there’s a real question of how Lawler can win. As we’ve seen above, he obliterated his previous highs, against a potentially injured opponent and still couldn’t win. In other words there may not be a path to victory beyond a punchers chance against a guy who seems to have the hardest head in the sport, having never been beaten by knockout or submission. There’s a reason the first fight closed at 1.27.

Funny thing is, right now, Hendricks is @ 1.50, and unless you believe he was either a) over-estimated or b) healthy the first time, there’s no reason that his odds should be much different than the first time, even ignoring the rematch data. Sure, Lawler’s now-found fondness for increased pace might be worth a small re-evaluation, but against Hendricks?

It would be a conflict of interest for me to blatantly tell you go out and bet Johny Hendricks, but I will say that you should judge the circumstances of the first fight markets and ask yourself if you really think much has changed. Your answer will determine how you should bet.

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