The Big Match Tactical View: Liverpool v Swansea

Can Garry Monk get the better of old boss Brendan Rodgers?

Both these sides recorded narrow victories on Boxing Day, and will be hoping to end 2014 with a victory. Michael Cox looks at the tactics, and Alan Thompson assesses the odds...

Liverpool v Swansea
Monday 8:00, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Liverpool 1.758/11, Swansea 5.59/2, The Draw 4.03/1.

The final Premier League match of 2014 is an interesting clash between Brendan Rodgers and one of his former players at Swansea, Garry Monk. Tactically, both managers will be keen to wrestle control of the midfield zone.

This will be the key battleground, but it's not necessarily where the game will be won and lost. Liverpool have generally been extremely good in midfield over the last month or so, but have dropped points because of poor finishing, dodgy defending and goalkeeping errors. Between the boxes Liverpool are fine, but at either end they've been desperately poor.

Rodgers cannot guarantee his side will dominate the midfield against Swansea, however. Monk wasn't quite Rodgers' successor - Michael Laudrup came between them - but hehas effectively continued with the blueprint that earned Swansea promotion to the Premier League under Rodgers.

That means plenty of patient possession play, holding onto the ball for long periods deep in midfield, and therefore Liverpool might find themselves frustrated in the early stages. Compared to their last home game against Arsenal, when Liverpool were totally dominant despite needing a stoppage time equaliser from Martin Skrtel, Rodgers' side might spent longer periods defending.

Weirdly, that might actually help Liverpool. In recent weeks, Rodgers' approach has been a 3-4-3 system with Coutinho and Adam Lallana floating behind Raheem Sterling, and attempting to hit through-balls beyond the defence for Sterling to break into.

Clearly, Sterling's speed makes this a viable approach, but only really if the opposition defence are positioned high up the pitch, and that's unlikely if Liverpool have endless spells of possession.

For example, Sterling was significantly more dangerous against Manchester United, when Liverpool played directly on the break, than against Arsenal when Liverpool pushed back the opposition. His finishing still needs work, but recent goals against Bournemouth and Burnley show he's starting to become a serious threat.

Rodgers is unlikely to make major changes to his side. The front three seems set in stone, the midfield has been working well, so the only question mark is at the back, where Dejan Lovren might not be fit. Simon Mignolet should start in goal, having replaced Brad Jones against Burnley on Boxing Day.

Swansea are also unlikely to make major changes for this game, following two consecutive 1-0 victories. Jefferson Montero is a doubt on the left flank, which could mean a return for Wayne Routledge, but perhaps a more important tactical decision is in the centre of midfield.

Jonjo Shelvey will be keen to start in a deep midfield role against his old side, but Monk might consider using either the returning Leon Britton or even young Tom Carroll - they provide more reliable ball retention skills in deep positions.

Swansea's key, however, is Gylfi Sigurdsson at the top of the midfield triangle. He hit the winner against Villa on Boxing Day with a fine free-kick, and only Cesc Fabregas has recorded more Premier League assists this season. Liverpool can be vulnerable to players positioning themselves between the lines of midfield and attack, and Swansea will be keen to supply Sigurdsson whenever possible.

The other interesting zone is the Swansea wide players, who must make a decision about whether to track Liverpool's wing-backs, or remain in a position to counter-attack. The former is more likely, and therefore Swansea's attacking transitions will be crucial: they must work the ball forward quickly, allowing the attacking players to break at speed against Liverpool's back three. Jordan Henderson and Lazar Markovic, the wing-backs, must play solid defensive roles.

I'm finding this game extremely difficult to predict. It feels like the worse Liverpool play, the more points they collect - and while the tactical battle suggests goals, both sides won 1-0 in their previous game. Liverpool look too short at 1.758/11, though, so I'll lay the home side.

Recommended Bet
Lay Liverpool at 1.758/11

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

These two have already clashed at Anfield once this season in the Capital One Cup, where Liverpool eventually ran out 2-1 winners. Despite going a goal behind in the 65th minute, The Reds rallied and scored twice in the final four minutes to progress; they are now in the semi-final where they await Chelsea.

Both sides recorded league victories on Boxing Day, Brendan Rogers got back to winning ways at Turf Moor (0-1) ending a three game winless streak and The Swans will travel to Merseyside also on the back of 1-0 win after beating Aston Villa at home. That Swansea goal means they have now scored in each of their last eight Premier League starts, only Manchester City (15) and Arsenal (11) can better that goal-scoring sequence.

Gary Monk’s side, this season, have not been behind in an away game at the half time interval (D6: W2) and that includes playing away at the top three. Liverpool have been drawing at Anfield at the break in their last five games. In fact the only game Liverpool haven’t been drawing at the interval in their last 11 league starts was at Old Trafford (2-0 HT).

I will be backing DRAW in the Half Time market at anything around 2.4. I also think that Swansea could take the lead in this, and as Wilfred Boney has scored the opener in three of his last four away starts, I will be looking to back him in the First Goalscorer market at 8.0 or above.