Three years on from their first encounter, bitter rivals Tony Bellew and Nathan Cleverly re-ignite their feud when they clash in Liverpool on November 22nd. With a move up to cruiserweight potentially pivotal, this preview analyses which boxer it suits best, and looks at other factors bettors should consider.
Bellew vs. Cleverly Numbers
With a close fight expected, we take a look at the key numbers from both camps to see if either fighter holds an edge.
Tony Bellew
Name
Nathan Cleverly
31
Age
27
6ft 2.5”
Height
6ft 1”
80”
Reach
74”
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
22-2-1
Record
28-1-0
2
World title fights
7
0%
World title fight win %
86%
22
Wins
28
56%
KO %
48%
155
Rounds boxed
181
Even though Cleverly is four years younger he holds an advantage in terms of experience, especially in World title fights.
Bellew has fought for two World titles losing both – against Cleverly first time out, and to Adonis Stevenson in 2013. Cleverly in comparison won his first six, before Sergey Kovalev ended that run in 2013.
Despite being of similar height Bellew holds a significant reach advantage over his rival. The Liverpudlian has boxed behind his jab in the past; bettors must decide how much of an advantage the 6” reach will be?
Both fighters have knocked out 14 opponents apiece, but Bellew’s knockout % is more impressive, while both have been knocked out once.
The numbers highlight that Cleverly has more experience, while Bellew has a reach and power advantage. However, these stats don’t highlight Cleverly’s key strengths - speed and work rate.
The boxer that copes with their emotions the best could hold an advantage in a tightly contested fight.
Rivalry
It all began in 2011, in the lead up to the first fight, when the pair had to be separated in a press conference. But since then their relationship has descended into a genuine dislike for each other. These two quotes sum up the hatred perfectly:
Cleverly stated in the lead-up to this fight “Many people have asked me why I am fighting Bellew again and the answer is simple – I don’t like him. He talks too much and although I’ve beaten him before in front of his home fans, I am going to KO him this time around.”
Bellew said: “I have been waiting for this fight for three years and now it is here, revenge is the only thing on my mind. This is personal, and he will not want to enter a boxing ring again after I have finished with him.”
With so much dislike for one another, it is vital both boxers try and control their emotions. If either fighter let their emotional dislike for each other rule their head, it could result in an early night.
Similarities between this fight and Froch vs. Groves have been made, and lessons should be learnt by Froch’s change of approach between the first and second bout.
Groves had clearly rattled Froch in the lead-up to the first fight, and as the bell went Froch was emotionally involved as he looked for a knockout. As a result Froch came close to being stopped in the first round, and despite a controversial stoppage win in Round 9, was in deep trouble for most of the bout.
The contrast in Froch’s psychology before and during the second fight was clear, as he refused to be dragged into a war of words, resulting in a brutal knockout victory.
When picking a winner bettors shouldn’t underestimate the impact psychology can have. The boxer that copes with their emotions the best could hold an advantage in a tightly contested fight.
First fight analysis
Despite being three years since the first fight, and in a different weight class, it is still worthwhile analysing the first meeting.
Cleverly won by majority decision - 114-114, 116-113, 117-112 - to retain the WBO light heavyweight title.
The pace of the fight was ferocious, and despite starting well it was clear Bellew struggled the longer the fight went on. Given Cleverly’s excellent engine, this will be an area of concern for Bellew in the second fight.
However, the bigger punches came from Bellew and his power nearly proved decisive in the tenth when Cleverly’s leg dipped after being caught by a big punch. This will be a worry, especially as Bellew should carry more power in the heavier weight division.
Two key points from the first fight are Cleverly’s engine, and the superior power of Bellew. Given the step up in weight, both could prove decisive in the rematch.
Who does the move to cruiserweight favour?
The move to cruiserweight is perhaps the most important difference between the first fight.
Bellew is a natural cruiserweight, and has previously stated he had to scale down to make the light heavyweight limit, claiming he lost power as a result.
In his two previous cruiserweight fights, he has stopped both opponents. Given Cleverly’s brutal defeat against Kovalev, how will the Welshman prepare mentally for this fight, knowing he has stepped up in weight against a fighter who can produce devastating knockouts?
While Bellew has the power, Cleverly has lightening speed. Speed is a vital component in any boxing match; he will look to get in and out quickly, before Bellew can land his power shots.
Given Bellew has explosive power and Cleverly has rapid hand speed, the ingredients for a phenomenal fight are in place. Bettors must decide what will be more valuable, power or speed?
Bettors must decide what will be more valuable, power or speed?
What the odds say
The odds at Pinnacle Sports make Cleverly the slight 1.833* favourite, while Bellew is at 2.000*.
The odds give Cleverly an implied probability of 54.56%, which highlights the closeness of this fight, and the problem bookmakers have at determining a clear favourite.
Bettors are advised to consider all of the information in this article before betting on the winner of Bellew vs. Cleverly II. Will Bellew get his revenge, or is Cleverly’s superior speed and boxing skill too much for the Liverpool “bomber”?
Click here for the latest Bellew vs. Cleverly II odds.
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