Raheem Sterling should continue upfront for Liverpool
Liverpool returned to winning ways against Bournemouth in midweek - but Arsenal will provide a much tougher test. Michael Cox considers the tactical battle, while Alan Thompson has some interesting recommended bets.
Liverpool v Arsenal
Sunday 16:00, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Liverpool 2.915/8, Arsenal 2.6613/8, The Draw 3.613/5.
Liverpool thrashed Arsenal 5-1 in this fixture last season, but it's difficult to see anything like a repeat this time around. Liverpool's form has nosedived dramatically this season, although Arsenal are still prone to dodgy away performances.
The key to the tactical battle here is Brendan Rodgers' formation choice. He's played a variety of shapes so far this season, and for the last two matches - a 3-0 defeat at Manchester United and a 3-1 victory over Bournemouth - has turned to a 3-4-3 formation. He was happy with the performance against United, where only Raheem Sterling's finishing let Liverpool down, and the win over Bournemouth should prompt a rise in confidence levels.
Sterling is likely to continue as Liverpool's main forward. Although his finishing still needs work, Sterling's runs are very intelligent in that centre-forward role, and this might be the perfect game for him to work the channels. Arsenal's full-backs will push very high up the pitch - which was partly their downfall here last season - and allow Sterling to drift wide before attacking the centre-backs.
With Laurent Koscielny out, Sterling will fancy his chances against both Per Mertesacker, who lacks pace, and Calum Chambers, who has a tendency to dive into tackles (although there's a chance Chambers will play right-back with Mathieu Debuchy in the centre, where he performed well against former club Newcastle recently).
Either way, Sterling should find space in behind the opposition, and his headed goal against Bournemouth shows he might be developing a goalscoring knack. He scored two in this fixture last year, and I think it's worth backing him to get another here at 3.814/5 - if Liverpool's approach is anything like last weekend, they'll spend the whole game trying to play through-balls towards him.
Adam Lallana and Coutinho will support Sterling by drifting from wide into central positions, allowing the wing-backs forward on the overlap. Jordan Henderson should play on the right, while Alberto Moreno will probably be preferred over Lazar Markovic on the left, despite the latter's goal in midweek.
The real issue is at the back. Three of Kolo Toure, Dejan Lovren, Martin Skrtel and Mamadou Sakho will start, and while all four are decent defenders on paper, there's little sign of a good relationship between any of them, and Liverpool are repeatedly making needless defensive errors to gift the opposition goals.
The pace of Arsenal on the break could expose the space either side of the back three - see how Antonio Valencia got space in the opening stages at Old Trafford last weekend, creating Wayne Rooney's opener - and I struggle to see how Liverpool will keep a clean sheet with a three-man defence.
Arsenal are likely to boast tremendous speed. Olivier Giroud should spearhead the side, but Alexis Sanchez and Danny Welbeck will expect to continue on the flanks, with Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain flying forward through the centre too. Oxlade-Chamberlain often seems to play well against Liverpool, and I think his forward running will be too much for Lucas Leiva and Steven Gerrard to cope with - I fear for Liverpool when they lose the ball, as this Arsenal side will counter-attack brilliantly.
Santi Cazorla has been in fine form in the middle, though the concern for Arsenal is deep in midfield, where Mathieu Flamini hasn't been particularly convincing this season. With Coutinho and Lallana drifting inside, Arsenal could become overloaded in that position, allowing Liverpool to provide Sterling with through-balls.
Basically, I see goals at both ends here - neither team is convincing at the back. However, whereas Liverpool's approach is likely to be one-dimensional and based entirely around Sterling, Arsenal have the pace of Welbeck and Sanchez, the poaching of Giroud, the creativity of Cazorla and the power of Oxlade-Chamberlain.
Wenger has a well-rounded attacking side at the moment, and though I worry about their vulnerability to Sterling's pace, I'll back Arsenal to win at 2.6613/8.
Recommended bets:
Back Raheem Sterling to score at 3.814/5
Back Arsenal to win at 2.6613/8
The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson
Last season Arsenal won more games on the road (11) than any other team and picked up a league high of 35 points away from the Emirates. But they only collected seven of those points when they faced a side that finished in the top half of the league. They won at Newcastle and Tottenham and played a draw at Southampton. The season before they collected 35 points away from home but again they failed to win any away games against the top six.
Liverpool were always going to struggle to hit the heights of last season and therefore people could be underestimating them at present. They have only lost twice at Anfield (Chelsea and Aston Villa) and were very unfortunate not to cause Manchester United more problems last week, they are also in the semi-final of the Capital One Cup after comfortably getting past a difficult opponent in Bournemouth. So it’s hardly been a disaster for the Reds and the FA may have done Brendan Rogers a favour by removing Mario Balotelli from his plans for an offensive tweet as he simply hasn’t produced for Liverpool since arriving from Milan.
The Gunners have scored on each of their last eight visits to Anfield and the market has Arsenal as the 2.66 favourites, but with their away form against the better sides in the league so poor I would rather be a layer than a backer at that price. I also think there will be goals in the game so I will be splitting my stake, backing half on over 3.5 goals @ 3.0 before the game and placing a keep bet on over 2.5 goals @ 2.3 to be matched in-running.
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