Against All Odds: Colombian final to entertain

Colombia is our country of choice today

It's action from Colombia tonight for Paul Robinson as he thinks that there will be at least three goals when Santa Fe take on Ind Medellin.

Santa Fe v Ind Medellin
Sunday December 21, 22:30 GMT

It's the final of the Clausura and hosts, Santa Fe, come into this game with a 2-1 lead having won the away leg earlier in the week. That clearly puts them in a strong position to lift the trophy but it is worth noting that they were beaten in their last home game and were held to a draw in the one prior to that.

It's the goal-side of things we're concentrating on here though and while only three of their last seven rewarded under 2.5 layers, there are reasons to be believe the goals will flow here. For a start, the first leg featured three goals as did the previous meeting between this pair on this ground back in August. Also, Gustavo Costas' men have kept just one clean sheet in their last four in front of their own fans.

Independiente Medellin come into this match without having recorded a victory in their four most recent fixtures. Draws with Aguilas Pereira and Deportes Tolima were followed by losses to Deportivo Cali and Santa Fe.

The problem has been at the back for Hernn Torres Oliveros' side as they haven't kept a clean sheet since October - a spell of nine matches. They scored in every one of those games themselves though and that resulted in seven of the nine finishing with at least three goals.

The visitors really have to go for it this evening and that will hopefully lead to an open encounter. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.728/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Santa Fe v Ind Medellin @ 1.728/11

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 341 pts
Returned: 356.99 pts
P/L: + 15.99 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)