Should bettors reduce the chances of a team winning after a Europa league game?

Should bettors reduce the chances of a team winning a Premier League game directly after a Europa League match? This article examines if a Europa League hangover exists in the EPL.

Is Tottenham’s form a consequence of Europa League soccer?

A persistent narrative of recent seasons surrounds the Europa League hangover possibly suffered by a team playing in Europe on a Thursday evening and then domestically on a Sunday afternoon. The turnaround between matches is only two days, one less than Champions League participants.

Tottenham have underperformed this season directly after midweek European games. A home defeat to Stoke followed home setbacks against Liverpool, WBA and a resurgent Newcastle.

If we count draws as half a win, Tottenham have a success rate of just 33% from their six post Europa League Premier League games, compared to a 60% success rate from their other five EPL matches.

The added burden of a midweek fixture, especially for teams that aren’t among the true elite, may be detrimental to future performance

Although this appears conclusive, we should always be wary of drawing assumptions from limited data. Small sample sizes have a tendency to produce extreme results, which may not be typical of a larger sample.

However, the added burden of a midweek fixture, especially for teams that aren’t among the true elite, may be detrimental to future performance.

Squad rotation is an obvious antidote. Spurs players who performed in midweek accounted for nearly 50% of the total playing time in their subsequent defeat by Newcastle compared to less than 20% when they defeated highflying Southampton. However, a similar tactic of playing largely rested players failed to prevent a home loss to WBA.

Therefore if we are to draw more solid conclusions for betting purposes, we should gather data over a longer timescale, encompassing more than a single team.

Difficulties of quantifying the Europa League as a problem

Europa League qualification is gained through a variety of ways. A high league position is the most common, but cup success has provided a route for some teams, including Stoke who qualified for the 2011/12 competition as beaten FA Cup finalists, while Fulham gained entry via the fair play route, despite a poor finish in the league.

The average number of points gained by teams since 2009 in the season previous to their Europa League participation was 63, falling to 62 the following season. This gap extends to an average of nearly four points between seasons if we eliminate teams which dropped into the Europa League from the Champions League.

So there is evidence for a very small amount of underperformance in a Europa League season.

Once again however, we should avoid attributing a drop in performance, even a small one, to a single factor, such as the Europa League. Teams that qualify solely through their league position the previous season, in addition to being quite good, may also have been fortunate.

Newcastle’s 65 points in 2011/12 came with a relatively poor goal difference, implying a degree of luck was involved. And Everton’s 72 points in 2013/14 was their highest total in the last decade and nine points better than their previous season.

Abnormal point totals compared to more fundamental indicators, such as goal difference and large improvements, without obvious squad strengthening, is often unsustainable in subsequent years.

So, even a wider study of Europa League participants may be confounded by the presence of teams that were likely to underperform during the following season encompassing their Europa League campaign because of additional factors.

Therefore, the most straightforward comparison to make is between a team’s success rate on a Sunday after a Europa League game and then in all other league games during that same season.

To investigate current trends, I’ve looked at matches since 2009, during which Premier League teams played 138 games on a Sunday following a Europa trip. Four such games were against fellow Europa League participants.

Overall, the limited studies appear to substantiate the existence of a Europa League hangover

Fulham had numerically the most onerous season in 2009/10, playing 14 contests on their way to the final, while Aston Villa bowed out early in the same campaign after playing just one potentially compromised Sunday match.

53% of the EPL games played by these sides were at home following a midweek European trip, although some team’s were less fortunate - Stoke were allotted nine EPL games after a midweek Europa League game, of which eight were away.

The standard of Premier League opposition was slightly above the average for the EPL as a whole. The average end of season finishing position of the opponents of Europa League participants in their game three days later was 10th.

In short, the sample of affected games has a slight over representation of home fixtures, but this is compensated for by a marginally elevated strength of schedule.

Sunday match outcomes following a Thursday Europa League game (2009-2014)

Game

Overall Success Rate

Sunday game directly after a Thursday in Europe

52%

Remainder of games that season

59%

Although less pronounced than Spurs’ currently splits, there is evidence that sides struggle to replicate the level of form they show in games without the burden of a Thursday night European game.

Player fatigue may be reduced by team selection, but preparation time will always be limited. Stoke were able to begin to prepare for the game at Spurs immediately following last Saturday’s draw with West Ham, whereas their opponents may have only began their EPL preparations on Friday.

Overall, the limited studies appear to substantiate the existence of a Europa League hangover.

The temptation to cherry pick teams to oppose should be avoided. Stoke, for example, in 2011 fared better on their Premier League travels after Europe than they traditionally did away from home under Tony Pulis.

Bettors therefore should treat each club differently but be aware that a modest reduction of team performance can be expected when they play on a Sunday following a Europa League game.