Premier League Stats Review: Liverpool can wrap up victory at Burnley

Liverpool can give Brendan Rodgers some Christmas cheer

Stats expert Andrew Atherley says the figures add up to a Liverpool win on Boxing Day...

Liverpool have hardly been anyone's idea of a banker this season, let alone one to light up the festive season, but they rate the best bet of Boxing Day in the Premier League when they visit Burnley.

Anything bigger than 1.84/5 represents good value on Liverpool, who are showing signs of improvement and rate a better chance than their overall form figures indicate.

The key factor is that Brendan Rodgers still has a team capable of maximising their points against the worst teams in the Premier League. Their record against the current bottom six is W3 D1 L1 - the defeat was 3-1 at Crystal Palace, easily Liverpool's worst performance of the season and probably a blip.

Apart from that defeat by Palace, Liverpool have lost on the road only to high-class teams - Manchester City, Manchester United, West Ham and Newcastle - and it is notable that they have yet to visit most of the worst home sides.

Burnley are in that category, ranking 15th on that measure, and so far Liverpool have won two out of three against the worst 10 home sides (the other result was the Palace defeat).

Liverpool have scored in all three games against those poor home teams and a repeat would give them a strong chance at Burnley, who have yet to win at home when conceding (two draws and three defeats) and overall have lost eight out of 12 when the opposition have got on the scoresheet.

Burnley's lack of goals is most marked against top-half teams, with just five scored in eight games, and that leaves them heavily reliant on keeping a clean sheet. 

To their credit, Sean Dyche's team have managed to do that in four of their nine home games but the problem comes when plan A fails. They have taken just one point from six games when conceding against top-half teams (one point from three games at home).

Liverpool have been shut out on the road only by Manchester United and Newcastle, and their recent scoring record is good - just two blanks in their last 10 games in all competitions.

With their reshaped formation giving them more of an attacking threat, Liverpool look good value at 1.855/6.

Recommended Bet
Back Liverpool to beat Burnley at 1.855/6

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 41 pts
Returned: 47.53 pts
P/L: +6.53 pts