четверг, 25 декабря 2014 г.

Five Betting Pointers: City's title defence gathers momentum and English strikers performing heroics

QPR's Charlie Austin is in red hot goalscoring form

The Christmas period began with some tremendous action in the Premier League at the weekend and both Joe Dyer and Mike Norman believe it's worth mentioning these five betting pointers with a view to making a profit in the coming weeks...

1. Man City's title defence gathering momentum

Despite not playing brilliantly at home to Crystal Palace on Saturday, Manchester City recorded their eighth successive win in all competitions, moving them level on points with Chelsea - who play tonight - at the top of table.

City's season is so far a mirror image of last season's title-winning campaign - they started slowly, were adrift of the early league leaders come early November, but then went on a magnificent run of form that saw them overhaul Chelsea and Liverpool.

What is encouraging about their title defence this term is that they are effectively one striker down in their squad (Alvaro Negredo was scoring for fun this time last season), Yaya Toure hasn't been in great form, and their key trio of Vincent Kompany, David Silva, and Sergio Aguero have had injury-interrupted spells. Yet they are in a far better position in the league now than they were 12 months ago, proving that they can win games when their star men are missing.

Toure is recapturing his best form, Silva is back fit and scoring goals, Aguero will be back early in the New Year, and yet Man City are still available to back at 3.3512/5 to defend their title. In a two-horse race, and with Chelsea yet to have any major setbacks, we believe that is a price well worth chancing.

2. Improving Liverpool means goals galore

Brendan Rodgers is pleased with the way Liverpool are playing, and so are we because we think games involving the Reds are destined for goals over the coming weeks.

Rodgers was correct in saying that Liverpool played well in their last three games, but the fact remains that the Merseysiders took just one point from a possible six and they can't afford to drop many more if they want to finish in the top four this term.

So this is a crucial time of the season for Liverpool, confidence is on the up and they have to go for wins. They scored five in the three games Rodgers was pleased with but they conceded six - all three matches went over the 2.5 goals mark and we can only see that trend continuing as the Reds carve out plenty of chances but still give you a chance at the back.

A trip to Turf Moor is next up for Rodgers' men before a home game against Swansea three days later. Both are winnable, and both will go very close to landing our Over 2.5 Goals wagers at 1.9420/21 and 1.981/1 respectively.

3. Hull in a hole

Things can change pretty fast in football but few would have predicted such a severe downgrade in Hull's fortunes after what was probably their best ever season. Saturday's 1-0 defeat to Swansea meant last year's losing FA Cup finalists have picked up just two wins this season and stand at just 2.56/4 for relegation.

Ten games have passed since Hull last tasted victory but though there are excuses for that run and even some impressive results during that sequence - draws against Liverpool, Arsenal and Everton - it is the failure to perform against fellow relegation rivals Burnley and West Brom that will hurt and annoy the fanbase.

Hull's problems stem from a lack of firepower upfront, scoring just four times in the last 10. Both Nikica Jelavic and Abel Hernandez have had their injury problems and neither has scored since mid-October. Steve Bruce must get one of them going if he is to save Hull's season and his career at the KC Stadium.

4. 2-1, to the Mighty Spurs... 2-1, to the Mighty Spurs

Some pointers are worth repeating, like the Hull one above. But by far the most profitable trend in the Premier League at present is the 2-1 scoreline in games involving Tottenham - a score that is often priced up at around the 10.09/1 mark.

There's no logic to why Spurs games continue to finish 2-1, but the fact is that seven of their last nine league matches have ended that way. Tottenham's last three away wins were all achieved by a 1-2 scoreline, and there was even a 1-2 away win at Asteras in the Europa League sandwiched in.

Mauricio Pochettino's men travel to lowly Leicester on Boxing Day, and the 1-2 away win can be backed at 9.617/2 on the Exchange, an extremely tempting price. It's 16.015/1 about the Foxes winning 2-1, so we're getting exactly 6.05/1 if we dutch both scores. We suggest you do exactly that until a run of game involving Spurs stop ending 2-1.

5. English striking riches

Daniel Sturridge, Wayne Rooney, Danny Welbeck and Rickie Lambert boarded the plane for Brazil in the summer as England's strikeforce for this year's World Cup and let's be honest there wasn't much competition for that quartet to fend off. It'll be different when the Roy Hodgson is picking his frontline for Euro 2016.

This season has been notable for an emerging clutch of young English forwards all of whom can challenge for a spot in the 23-man squad. The national team know all about Danny Ings and Harry Kane already - the pair have both scored four goals each despite not playing every minute for their clubs either through injury or selection reasons. But the man who could trump the pair is QPR's Charlie Austin who is scoring goals at Loftus Road at a rate not seen since Les Ferdinand's heyday.

Saturday's hat-trick takes Austin into double figures for the year and just one behind Diego Costa and three back from Sergio Aguero in the race for the Golden Boot. Austin is undoubtedly QPR's relegation lifeline and if he can start scoring away from home - just two of his 11 have come on the road - he can write his name into QPR legend and plausibly challenge for the Golden Boot. The 25-year-old trades at 16.015/1 to finish top of the pile.

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