Stoke v Chelsea: Back Mourinho's men to avenge their last away day defeat

Jose Mourinho will be looking for a reaction from his Chelsea side

After a winning week last week, Luke Moore is back and previewing Chelsea's visit to Stoke on Monday night...

Stoke v Chelsea
Monday 22nd December, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Stoke

Stoke City are known for their robust home form and, at the beginning of this season, were looking to build on last term's top ten finish.

However, the two showpiece results of Mark Hughes' season so far have been away from the Britannia - wins at the Etihad and White Hart Lane are unquestionably the standout highlights of the last four or five months, and at home they've been disappointing on occasion. They've lost at home to Burnley and Leicester on their own turf, but a win against Arsenal in their last home game will give them hope that they can mix it with an excellent Chelsea side.

If the Potters are to get another famous result though, they'll have to do it without Steve Sidwell and Victor Moses, and Hughes is sweating on the fitness of Bojan, one of his standout performers so far.

Chelsea

A lot of praise has been heaped on this Chelsea side, and they currently sit at a slim 1.594/7 for the title with a colossal 22 league games left to play. That should tell you everything you need to know about the ruthlessness and effectiveness of Jose Mourinho's team, but they've shown the odd chink in their armour recently, having been beaten by Newcastle fairly handily and held to a goalless draw against Sunderland a couple of games before that.

That all said, they remain a strong side, expected to go deep in the Champions League and be there or thereabouts at least in the Premier League come May. Stoke will hold no fear for them; this is a robust side who do not fear physical encounters or tough away trips.

Thibaut Courtois aside, the Blues have no major injury worries.

Match Odds

Chelsea are big favourites here, and that's to be expected. As I've already mentioned, they don't fear tough away trips, although their home record is clearly superior to their form on the road. Stoke will take heart from their result over Arsenal a fortnight ago, but Mourinho's men do not possess the weak spine or psychological fragility that has undone Arsene Wenger's team time and again.

The away side are priced up at 1.654/6 to win here, which is probably about fair, Stoke are 6.411/2 and The Draw is 4.1n/a.

I'm acutely aware that Stoke have the ability to upset better sides, and that they are traditionally strong at home, but I don't see them doing much on Monday night. Their home record is only one point better than their away record so far this season, and I think Chelsea will probably have too much.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Both of these teams boast a record that four of their last six games in the league have gone Overs. 2.1211/10 is the current price on that outcome, and I feel like this market rests on the ambition shown by Stoke. If they look to get a result, then the game will be more open and we're far more likely to see goals.

My inkling is that this game will go over 2.5; Mourinho will be looking for a reaction after their last poor showing on the road and Stoke could bear the brunt of that. Diego Costa, Eden Hazard et al are more than capable of hitting the back of the net on more than one occasion.

Unders is 1.855/6.

Chelsea-1

I'm fairly confident the Blues will win this game pretty easily. I can't see Stoke being able to cope with Chelsea's movement going forward and they'll find it tough to deal with Costa and Hazard especially. Stoke concede well over a goal a game this season, and they've not played anyone as good as Chelsea at home yet.

The Chelsea-1 price of 2.6213/8 on the Sportsbook tempts me and I think I'll offer that up as well as the straight away win at 1.654/6 on the Exchange.

Recommended Bets
Back Chelsea to win at 1.654/6
Back Chelsea-1 at 2.6213/8 on the Sportsbook

Luke Moore's 2014-15 P/L

Staked: 38pts
Returned: 36.33pts
P/L: -1.67pts