Man Utd v Newcastle: Goals in store with gifts likely from both defences

Goals look likely at both ends in Old Trafford clash

Andrew Atherley predicts an entertaining match at Old Trafford on Boxing Day as both teams try to bounce back from disappointing results...

Man Utd v Newcastle
Boxing Day, 15:00

Man Utd

United's six-match winning streak came to an end on Saturday when they could not finish off 10-man Aston Villa and had to settle for 1-1. In fact, Villa created the better chances late in the game and but for Gabriel Agbonlahor's red card (since rescinded) they might have beaten United.

Louis Van Gaal was far from impressed by United's performance, although some might say it had been coming after they rode their luck in several matches - notably away to Arsenal and home to Liverpool - and were grateful to goalkeeper David de Gea for keeping them in games.

Angel di Maria could be in the starting line-up, having come back from injury to play the last half-hour at Villa Park, and Chris Smalling has a chance of returning to the centre of defence. Michael Carrick has filled the gap at the back in recent weeks but it would be a boost if he was able to move further up the field.

Marouane Fellaini is still on the injury list, along with summer signings Daley Blind, Marcos Rojo, Ander Herrera and Luke Shaw.

Newcastle

The gloss has been taken off Newcastle's revival, with only one win (albeit against Chelsea) in their last six games in all competitions. They have been knocked out of the Carling Cup by Tottenham and Sunday's derby defeat by Sunderland was their third straight loss.

Steven Taylor is expected to be available despite having stitches in a facial wound after colliding with a post in the derby but Cheick Tiote is suspended and Papiss Cisse heads the injury list.

Match Odds

United's strength is their home form, with seven wins out of nine (second only to Chelsea) and 22 points from the 24 available since their opening-day defeat by Swansea.

The record is less impressive when stripped down to results against top-half teams (W2 D1 L1) and even in the wins against West Ham (2-1) and Liverpool (3-0) it is fair to say the visitors could have taken something from the game.

That means United are hardly banker material at 1.412/5 even though the figures say Newcastle are the worst top-half team when it comes to playing on the road (ranking 15th overall on that measure).

Newcastle's recent away results have been poor, with a 4-1 league defeat by Arsenal swiftly followed by their 4-0 Carling Cup knockout by Tottenham. Yet this is the same team that won at Tottenham in the league, as well as drawing at Swansea and beating Manchester City at the Etihad earlier in the Carling Cup run.

There is no doubt Alan Pardew's side are dangerous opponents, having also beaten Chelsea and Liverpool this season (both at home) and won at Old Trafford just over 12 months ago.

It is also worth noting that Newcastle have a good away record when scoring - W5 D2 L1 in all competitions this season (the defeat was in the last league match at Arsenal). 

That could be significant, given that United have kept only one clean sheet in seven attempts against top-half opposition and that was rather fortuitously at home to Liverpool.

With United having only a 50% win rate against top-half teams when conceding, relying on the short-odds hosts to come out on top in a scoring duel is laced with risk.

It is tempting to go for Newcastle on value grounds at 9.417/2 or on the double chance at around 3.211/5 but those recent collapses at Arsenal and Tottenham are off-putting.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Although Newcastle's goals tallies are on the lower side overall, both teams tend to have high-scoring matches against better-class opposition.

Five of United's seven games against top-half teams have had over 2.5 goals, while Newcastle have had five out of eight - three of those have gone over 3.5 goals (all on the road).

Seven of United's nine home games have had over 2.5 goals (putting them top on that measure) but only one has gone over 3.5 goals. That is surprising, but may be a sign of United's failure to dominate teams for most or all of a match - one of Van Gaal's criticisms after the Villa draw.

Over 2.5 goals looks likely but it is another short-priced option at just 1.654/6.

Winning Margin

United's failure to blow many teams away makes it worth considering Man Utd by 1 at 3.7511/4 in the Winning Margin market.

Six of United's nine wins have been by a single goal (four out of seven at home) and, apart from the Liverpool 3-0, the only other teams dispatched with any measure of comfort were poor away sides QPR (4-0) and Hull (3-0). 

The figures point to a narrow United win if they do prevail, making this a better-odds option for those who are keen to back the home side.

Both Teams To Score

At 1.845/6 this may be the best option on the goals front. This has happened in five of United's nine home games (three out of four against top-half teams) and in four of Newcastle's nine away games (three out of five against top-half teams).

A key stat is that both teams have found it difficult to keep a clean sheet against top-half opponents - one out of seven for United, one out of eight for Newcastle.

Recommended Bet
Both Teams To Score at 1.845/6 (1pt)

Andrew Atherley 2014/15 P/L

Staked: 41 pts
Returned: 47.53 pts
P/L: +6.53 pts