Newcastle v Sunderland: Hosts have the form to end bad run of derby results

Alan Pardew's Newcastle can win for the first time in six derbies

Andrew Atherley expects a close Tyne-Wear derby on Sunday but reckons Newcastle will come out on top in the end...

Newcastle v Sunderland
Sunday, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Newcastle
The Magpies are trying to end a run of five Tyne-Wear derbies without a win and, for Alan Pardew, there is the uncomfortable prospect of becoming the first Newcastle manager to lose four straight derbies against Sunderland.

Newcastle are the form side here, however, having dragged themselves out of their early-season mess to climb to eighth place with six wins and two draws from their last 10 Premier League games.

Of the probable starters, there are minor doubts about Steven Taylor, Cheick Tiote and Sammy Ameobi, who will undergo fitness checks, while Papiss Cisse has been suffering from a cold. 

The main problem for Pardew at the moment is the goalkeeping position, which has had to be filled by third-choice Jak Alnwick. The 21-year-old looks pretty good but is still raw and faces a fourth big test in a row after games against Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham.

At least Jack Colback, an influential figure in recent derbies as a Sunderland player, is on Pardew's side this time.

Sunderland
The Black Cats were expected to kick on after last season's blistering finish took them to safety but they have stagnated and become the draw specialists of the Premier League.

Having finished all-square in 10 of their 16 matches, and won only two, Sunderland are 15th in the table and just two points above the relegation zone.

This week has brought renewed speculation about Gus Poyet's position after he appeared to criticise the club's transfer policy and he is currently 11.5n/a in the Next Manager To Leave market.

It is not unknown for this derby to sound the death knell for a manager, but on the other hand Poyet has a good record against Newcastle both as a player and manager and another victory here is likely to buy him more time.

Sunderland have gone six games without a win (five have been draws) and Steven Fletcher is likely to return up front as Poyet tries to find some firepower.

Match Odds
On the face of it, win odds above evens for Newcastle look generous given the form lines and the respective league positions, but perhaps there is a derby factor at work.

Sunderland have been a worse side than Newcastle for the past three seasons but in that period their derby record is W3 D2 L1 (and the sole win for Newcastle was the first of those games, right at the start of the 2011-12 season).

As often happens in derbies, the history of this Tyne-Wear clashes in the Premier League era shows a high draw rate (38%) amid a string of close games (75% either drawn or won by one goal), although the balance of results is in Newcastle's favour (W9 D9 L6 - half of the losses coming in the last three meetings).

If Newcastle can rise above the derby factor, they have plenty in their favour. In their recent good run of 10 games (during which their only defeats have been away to Arsenal and West Ham), their record against bottom-half teams is W4 D1 L0.

Sunderland have yet to beat a top-half team this season and, although they have drawn six out of nine in that category, the majority of those games have been at home, which leaves a question mark over their away form.

They have lost their only away game so far against a top-half side (the 8-0 drubbing at Southampton) and there is a little more evidence from the fact that they have visited two of the best 10 home sides (Newcastle are sixth on that measure) and lost both times to nil (1-0 at QPR as well as the Southampton game).

That gives Sunderland quite a bit to find on form, although there are some positives. Firstly, they have lost only four out of 16 overall (joint-fourth best in the Premier League on that measure) and three of the defeats have been against teams in the top six.

Secondly, the Southampton collapse was out of character as Poyet's side are generally quite tight in defence. They have conceded more than one goal only once in their last seven matches and that was against Manchester City.

Even so, it is difficult to get away from the fact that Newcastle are overpriced on form at 2.111/10.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Both teams rank in the bottom half for goals scored - Newcastle are joint-12th with 18 goals and Sunderland 18th with 14 goals - and both have had a majority of games with under 2.5 goals (nine out of 16 for Newcastle and 10 for Sunderland).

Under 2.5 goals is favourite at 1.794/5 and that looks about right, although it is worth noting that unders has occurred only slightly more often (13 out of 24) in the Premier League history of this derby and the last three (all won by Sunderland) have had over 2.5 goals. 

Half Time/Full Time
With Sunderland set to play a tight game but with Newcastle rating as likely winners, a bet to consider is Draw/Newcastle at 5.85/1 on the Half Time/Full Time. 

All four of Newcastle's home wins this season have been gained in that fashion, while Sunderland have been level at half-time in 10 of their 16 matches - although, rather remarkably and to their credit, every one of those half-time draws has been turned into a point at the end of the match.

Six of Newcastle's seven home games, and four of Sunderland's seven away games, have been level at half-time, so a tight first half would be no surprise. In that context a half-time draw at 2.111/10 and a half-time score of 0-0 at 2.789/5 are worth considering.

Bookings Odds
As you might expect, this derby has the potential to be feisty (putting it mildly) and there has been at least one sending-off in four of the last eight meetings.

Six of the last 10 derbies have had five yellow cards or more (a couple of times without a red), which tips the balance towards a higher count, although the last two have been relatively quiet with two and four yellows.

Opta's stats show that no side has picked up more yellow cards than Sunderland (37) this season, while only Swansea (4) have more red cards than Newcastle (3).

Recommended Bet
Back Draw/Newcastle on Half Time/Full Time at 5.85/1 (1pt)  

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 38 pts
Returned: 44.04 pts
P/L: +6.04 pts