Overs or Unders: Palace to stand firm against injury-hit Man City

Sergio Aguero is among a trio of injured strikers missing for City

Man City may be on a roll, but they're in danger of grinding to a halt against a defiantly stubborn Crystal Palace. With a preview of that game and three others of choice, here's Neil Harvey with this week's Overs or Unders...

Saturday

Manchester City v Crystal Palace - 12:45   

Neil Warnock's team are now officially in grind mode. Four of Crystal Palace's last five Premier League matches have been low-scoring. Four of their last five on the road were also short on goals. Like a worm making a jailbreak, Palace are inching their way to safety. Three draws in the last five games is solid stuff. Unfortunately it won't be enough to keep them up. At some point the Eagles will need to ascend to getting victories if they want to avoid relegation. But now is unlikely to be the week they choose to push on. Instead, I'm expecting more of the same caution they've demonstrated over the past few weeks.

It may surprise some to find that Manchester City, a side on a five game winning streak, have also been quiet on the goal front of late. Manuel Pellegrini's side have been relatively subdued at the Etihad  - producing three low-scoring games out of their last five there. So if Palace do come to defend, the Blues could struggle to get more than two goals - something they've done on only two out of seven occasions this season. The fact that City are without any fit, recognised strikers, with Sergio Aguero, Edin Dzeko and Stevan Jovetic all missing, is just the icing on the low-scoring cake.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.285/4

Aston Villa v Man Utd - 15:00  

It seems as though Manchester United have now built some momentum under Louis Van Gaal. Doubts remain over the quality of their play, with the critics still, well, criticising. What is beyond doubt though, is that the Red Devils are getting results and producing lots of goals in the process. United have won their last five games in the Premier League. All five were high-scoring.

But while Van Gaal's team may have clicked up front, they most certainly haven't at the back. Note that United have conceded in six out of seven away games this season. That alone should give the hosts every belief that they too can find the net.

More than half of Villas's home games have been high scoring. So they look unlikely to play the role of spoiler, in what should be an open game against a United side that's in cavalier form. Wins at Southampton and Arsenal in their last two away outings suggest United are very capable of beating 13th placed Villa. To do that though, they'll probably need to bag at least a couple, with their faltering defence likely to be breached once again.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.021/1

Sunday

Newcastle v Sunderland - 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

This derby match has all the makings of a blood and thunder encounter, with goals likely to be hard to come by. Newcastle have registered three 1-0 victories in their last five games at home and will surely stick with the prudent approach that's served them so well recently. Sunderland meanwhile, have registered no less than three 0-0 draws in their last five away games, suggesting they too are unlikely to be giving away any early Christmas presents.

Sunderland sit just two points above the relegation zone, so cannot afford to be anything but careful here. Defeat, plus the possibility of dropping into the bottom three at the hands of their arch enemies, would be a bitter pill to swallow for the Mackems.  It could also prove another nail in the managerial coffin of Gus Poyet. So I expect him to approach this game with the utmost caution.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.794/5

Liverpool v Arsenal - 16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

It's time to defecate or get off the pot, or words to that effect, for Liverpool boss Brendan Rogers. With his team still in the bottom half of the table, the vultures are visibly circling now for Rogers. But even he must realise that a comprehensive win over Arsenal could earn him a stay of execution. He needs a big result - and the time is now or never.

Arsenal are in almost equal need of the points though. Currently five points off an automatic Champions League place, Arsene Wenger's side can't afford to let that gap grow. A point does little for either side here. So should the game find itself heading for a draw, I could easily see both teams being willing to roll the dice. 

The Gunners have been leaky at the back on their travels, conceding two goals or more to exactly half their opponents. And they should be good for at least a goal themselves though, having netted in seven of their eight away games.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.794/5

2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 56pts
Returned: 58.99pts
P/L: +2.99