Chelsea v West Ham: Hammers to park bus and frustrate Mourinho again

Allardyce will be more than happy to revert to last season's tactics and aim for a point at the Bridge.

The league leaders host this season's surprise package in Boxing Day's early game, but Jaymes Monte expects the Hammers to revert to type in search of a vital point...

Chelsea v West Ham
Friday December 26th, 2014
Sky Sports 1

Chelsea

I'm not one that usually sympathises with managers' complaints about the scheduling of football matches. However, it does seem a little harsh to me that Chelsea should be asked to play Boxing Day's early kick-off after also playing Monday night's game. That said, if anyone has the squad to cope then it's the league leaders.

Jose Mourinho hailed the spirit and mentality of his team after the 2-0 triumph at the Britannia, claiming that it was a victory worth more than just three points. And it certainly had that feeling about it. Although Mourinho's comments were coated with sly digs at Stoke's style of play it was a performance and result that reinstated the Blues as firm title favourites.

John Terry became the 13th Chelsea goalscorer in the Premier League this season with the opener on Monday night, further dispelling any lingering myths that this team are in any way reliant on Diego Costa - who, incidentally, has scored just one in his last six.

The hosts could, however, be without second-top scorer Eden Hazard this Friday after the Belgian limped off in injury time of Monday night's game with an ankle problem.

West Ham

A run of four wins and one draw in their last five matches has moved West Ham up to fourth position in the Premier League table and seen them wrestle 'this season's surprise package' tag from a faltering Southampton.

The Hammers have lost only once in their last 11 Premier League fixtures and are already just nine points shy of last season's total points haul (40). But they now must guard against stumbling in the same pitfalls as the Saints did earlier this month, as a couple of games against last season's top four follow in quick succession.

Andy Carroll has now scored three in his last three games, including his first goal that wasn't a header in over a year, while Stewart Downing has doubled his tally for the season with two in his last two starts.

Match Odds

As good as West Ham have been this season, their away form still makes for fairly average reading with three wins, three draws and two defeats from eight Premier League fixtures. While Chelsea's home record remains an immaculate eight wins from eight with only three goals conceded and 20 scored.

The Blues are also unbeaten in their last nine Boxing Day games (W5, D4), while Sam Allardyce has only managed to negotiate two wins from 21 Premier League games against Chelsea as a manager and he has never outwitted Mourinho to take all three points. Although Big Sam has manufactured three draws at the Bridge, including last season's infamous goalless draw.

It will be interesting to see how Allardyce sets his team up this weekend. Will he go with the more adventurous outlook that has moved his team into the top four of the Premier League? Or will he revert to the set up that successfully thwarted Chelsea here last season?

If it's to be the former, then odds of 1.351/3 on a home win look to be about right. But if, as I presume, The Hammers are capable and willing to grind out a result and set up with two banks of four on the edge of the box - i.e. park the bus again - then there has to be a bit of value in either taking the draw at odds of 5.69/2 or simply laying Chelsea at 1.351/3.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

A lot here again depends on how West Ham approach this game. If they open up then I have no doubt that Chelsea will be able to pick them off, and also wouldn't be surprised to see the Hammers get on the scoresheet, making Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.75/7 a safe play.

But, like my play on the Match Odds, I'm going to take a chance on the fact that Allardyce is a savvy man and knows all too well the might of Chelsea. I also think that, like he did last season, he would revel in seeing Mourinho becoming increasingly frustrated at being unable to break through a robust Hammers defence. Therefore, I'm going to take another chance and back Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 2.47/5. A repeat 0-0 scoreline can be backed at 18.017/1.

Recommended Bets
1pt Lay Chelsea @ 1.351/3
1pt Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.47/5

Jaymes Monte 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 41.0 pts
Returned: 36.88 pts
P/L: -4.12 pts