Derby v Leeds: Rams to spring out of the blocks

Steve McClaren's Derby side simply look too strong for Leeds on current form

Andy Tongue is keen to finish on a high in the year's final live Championship game and thinks he has found a couple of winning bets for us at decent prices...

Derby v Leeds
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Derby

The Rams' mini-stutter of late had been available for all to see with three of their games televised in December. At Middlesbrough they were out-thought and outplayed in a 2-0 defeat before a slightly hesitant performance at home to Norwich saw them concede a late equaliser as they had to settle for a 2-2 draw. In between, Steve McClaren's side acquitted themselves perfectly admirably in a 3-1 defeat at home to Chelsea in the Capital One Cup.

However, plenty of nerves of the East Midlands will have been settled by that comprehensive 4-0 win at improving Birmingham on Boxing Day, where County showed the range of attacking options they possess and illustrated why, in my opinion, they just about have the edge over the likes of Middlesbrouogh, Ipswich and Bournemouth as the best all-round side in the division.

That win at St Andrew's looks even better in the light of the Blues' subsequent 3-1 triumph at Nottingham Forest and McClaren is likely to select an unchanged side here, with the visit of non-league Southport in the FA Cup on Saturday giving him the opportunity to rest a few first-choice players.

Leeds

We also had the chance to see Leeds in action recently and they earned a slightly fortuitous point at Nottingham Forest just over a week ago. The home side felt aggrieved to have had two goals ruled offside - both debatable decisions- although Neil Redfearn's men showed admirable resilience to equalise in the second-half and hold off a late barrage for the 1-1 draw.

That was followed by a very disappointing 2-0 home defeat at the hands of Wigan on Boxing Day, which leaves them in 20th place very much now looking down at the sides below them in the relegation battle. Away from home though they have just the one win all season (at Bournemouth back in mid-September), illustrating the scale of the task they face here.

They are also one of three clubs under a transfer embargo in Janaury, due to failing FFP rules so Redfearn is going to have to make do with what he has in his squad and won't be able to bring in any new faces.

Half Time/Full Time

Derby are available to back at 1.558/15 and given the side's respective results on Boxing Day and United's away form that price won't put off the bigger players and forms a pretty attractive win double with red-hot Ipswich, who are at home to Charlton on Tuesday evening as well.

However, I like to look for something that returns at least double our stake if possible as the recommended best bet and the Half Time/Full Time market catches my eye. Derby have been out of the blocks quickly at the iPro Stadium in the past couple of months, leading at the break in each of their last five league games.

With Leeds' poor away form and the general lack of spine about the visitors currently, the 2.35/4 about Derby/Derby looks pretty attractive.

Redfearn has been adamant that he won't change his footballing principles despite the poor returns away from Elland Road this season but this will probably play into Derby's hands here. In a pure footballing match, I make them the best side in the division, despite the recent wobble, and if a struggling  side comes to the iPro and tries to outplay them I think there will be only be outcome - a comfortable home win.

Match result/Both teams to score

Despite their poor points return, Leeds have actually found the net in each of their last six away games and they have only failed to find the net on their travels once since the opening day of the season. The problem has obviously been at the other end of the pitch where they've not managed a single clean sheet away from Elland Road all season.

With Derby the division's top scorers in front of their own fans and possessing players in the front five or six positions who can all hurt the opposition then we should expect goals here. Chris Martin is the second highest-scorer in the division with 14 goals and Johnny Russell is in the best form of his career at the iPro.
Derby to win and both teams to score can be backed over at the Sportsbook at 3.39/4 and that's also worth backing here.

Recommended Bets

Back Derby/Derby at Half Time/Full Time at 2.35/4
Back Derby to win and both teams to score on Betfair sportsbook

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 82.5 pts
Returned: 83.06 pts
P/L: + 0.56 pts

*2pts best bet if stated
1pt other recommended bets