среда, 14 января 2015 г.

The Big Wednesday Multiple: FA Cup replay to be tight

Mick McCarthy's side are conceding less than a goal a game

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Bradford (HOME) @ 2.37 (11/8)  

This is an FA Cup third round replay with the winners set to face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. That is obviously a huge carrot for both teams but more so Millwall as The Blues are their biggest rivals.

The Lions come into this game with just one win since October and they have lost their last four Championship matches, scoring just one goal in the process. They had to come from behind to force this replay in the original fixture at The Den and it's hard to see them winning tonight, despite being in the division above their opponents.

Bradford lost their first game since the beginning of November on Saturday as they were beaten 2-1 by Rochdale. We can forgive them that though as Phil Parkinson's side were reduced to 10 men after 11 minutes and the winner wasn't scored until injury time.

Bet 2: Lazio (AWAY) @ 2.5 (6/4)

Torino host Lazio with the winner earning a place in the quarter-finals of the Coppa Italia and the red-hot Lazio have to be the bet to get the job done.

The Eagles have lost just two of 15 fixtures of late and one of those was against Juventus. They even led 2-0 at Roma on Sunday before a certain Mr Totti popped up with two goals and a 'selfie' celebration. 

Opponents, Torino, are slowly recovering since the loss of star striker, Ciro Immobile, and while they come into this game on a six match unbeaten streak, four of those were draws and they didn't really face decent opposition during that period. 

Prior to that it was four defeats from five, and even with home advantage, I can't see Giampiero Ventura's team being able to cope with Lazio's quality.

Bet 3: Tottenham v Burnley (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.66 (4/6)

Another FA Cup replay now as Spurs host Burnley at White Hart Lane. Tottenham's seven match unbeaten run was ended at the weekend but Alan Pardew's first game in charge was never going to be a good time to go to Selhurst Park.

It's the goals we're interested in here though and with Harry Kane leading the way, six of their last eight have gone over 2.5 and their four most recent home scorelines read; 4-0, 2-1, 0-0 and 5-3.

Burnley are enjoying themselves at the moment as after being written off almost immediately, they are now out of the relegation zone. Sean Dyche's men have started scoring goals and that has led to two thirds of their last half dozen having had three or more - including a 2-1 league defeat on this ground.

Bet 4: Ipswich v Southampton (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 (8/11) - Live on BBC 1 at 19:55 GMT

One of the surprise packages of the Championship host one of the surprise packages of the Premier League this evening with all the action live on the BBC.

I wouldn't be expecting viewers to be rewarded with goals though as Ipswich have a very good defence, as do Southampton. Mick McCarthy's side have kept six clean sheets in their last 11 outings at Portman Road, while The Saints have only conceded more than once on just two occasions this term away from St Mary's.

This match has under 2.5 goals written all over it, and while I expect it to be entertaining with some great football played, the defences should just about have the edge.

Recommended Multiple

Back Bradford @ 2.37 (11/8)
Back Lazio @ 2.5 (6/4)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Tottenham v Burnley @ 1.66 (4/6)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Ipswich v Southampton @ 1.72 (8/11)

The Multiple pays approximately 16.92 (16/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 1 pt
Returned: 0 pts
P/L: - 1 pt
(2014 P/L: + 48.57pts)
(2013 P/L: - 15.49 pts)

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