Man City will look to take advantage of Everton's poor form
After a brief break for the FA Cup the Premier League returns with six games kicking off at the traditional time of 3pm on Saturday, and our man Mike Norman is here to preview them all...
Burnley 2.245/4 v QPR 3.65n/a; The Draw 3.55/2
Many will see this as QPR's best opportunity to get off the mark on their travels, but how can you side with a team that has played 10 games away from home this season and lost every single one of them?
Put simply, when you consider the Hoops' dreadful away form - which includes a defeat at League Two side Burton - and think back to last Sunday when Harry Redknapp's men lost 0-3 at home to League One outfit Sheffield United, then you have to take them on again.
Yes, QPR's poor away form will end eventually, but until it does then I'm happy to ignore them.
Burnley have suffered just three defeats in their last 11 games but five of those were drawn so they really need to get back to winning ways. They've been scoring goals of late - two at Man City, three at Newcastle - and they held in-form Spurs to a draw at Turf Moor in the FA Cup last weekend.
Sean Dyche's men are extremely hard working and if you had to put your last pound on any of these two sides winning the game then I'm quite sure you'd be more comfortable trusting the home side. I know I am.
Recommended Bet
Back Burnley to Win @ 2.245/4
Chelsea 1.222/9 v Newcastle 18.5n/a; The Draw 7.613/2
Newcastle's 'unavailable' list is quite something; no less than 14 first team players are currently listed on Physio Room as absent due to either injury or illness, and although I'm sure some will return on Saturday it's hard to look beyond a home win, especially given that the Magpies' top striker Papiss Ciss is away on international duty.
Chelsea have certainly dipped of late, especially away from home, and their 'brilliant' defence has now conceded just one less goal than Manchester United's 'woeful' backline. Food for thought isn't it?
So backing a Chelsea Win to Nil is a risky proposition - as I've learnt to my cost a few times this season - so instead we'll go for goals in this encounter.
My gut feeling is that the Blues will be desperate to start stringing some wins together in the Premier League and they'll want to put their big loss to Tottenham well and truly behind them.
This might be a case of damage limitation for Newcastle but if Jose Mourinho's men are on top form then they can easily score three or four. We'll go for the latter in a home win, which is generously priced at 5.04/1 in the Correct Score market.
Recommended Bet
Back Any Other Home Win @ 5.04/1
*Chelsea must score at least four goals and win the game for the bet to be successful
Everton 4.47/2 v Manchester City 1.9420/21; The Draw 3.8514/5
This is a straightforward one for me; Everton are in poor form, Man City are in great form - I can't see any other outcome other than an away win.
Yaya Toure maybe away on international duty and Sergio Aguero is likely to be still absent despite returning to training this week, but Manuel Pellegrini doesn't really have any other worries regarding his squad with captain Vincent Kompany set to return.
The Citizens have won a very impressive 12 of their last 13 league and cup games, and although performances haven't been great in recent weeks they are still grinding out wins whichever team lines up for Pellegrini.
Everton on the other hand are in their worst run of form under Roberto Martinez. They're struggling to keep the goals out and they have only a win over poor travellers QPR to show from their last 10 league and cup matches. The Toffees have also failed to find the net in four of their last six Premier League outings.
So it's an away win for me, and I'm making it my best bet of the day given the Opta stat that tells us that Martinez has faced Man City 11 times in the Premier League as a manager, and never been on the winning side (D1 L10).
Recommended Bet
Back Man City to Win @ 1.9420/21 (best bet)
Leicester 2.245/4 v Aston Villa 3.814/5; The Draw 3.412/5
I was originally going to back Under 2.5 Goals here, but I'm hardly encouraged by the 1.684/6 odds on offer.
The case for backing a low-scoring game is a strong one however; Villa are by far the lowest-scoring side in the top four divisions with just 11 league goals to their name, while Leicester sit bottom of the table following an awful run of form from October to late December which included a run of five games where they failed to score a single goal.
But at least the Foxes have two wins to their name from their last three matches, and more importantly they've found the back of the net in four successive games now.
Villa on the other hand just can't score. Since the middle of December Paul Lambert's men have failed to score against West Brom and Swansea away from home, and perhaps more telling they recorded blanks at home to both Sunderland and Crystal Palace.
So while this game promises to be far from entertaining my feeling is that a single goal might settle it, and if that's the case then that goal is far more likely to be scored by Nigel Pearson's men than it is by goal-shy Villa.
Recommended Bet
Back Leicester to Win @ 2.245/4
Swansea 2.35/4 v West Ham 3.55/2; The Draw 3.55/2
Possibly the hardest game of the day to call and I'm a little surprised that there's a big difference in Swansea's win price and West Ham's win price. I simply can't split the pair.
Garry Monk's men go into this game on the back of a convincing win at Tranmere in the FA Cup, but prior to that they suffered a heavy defeat at Liverpool before needing a last minute equaliser at QPR to earn a point.
In fact those last three Swansea results basically sum up their season as a whole - lose, draw, win, lose draw win. From their last 17 league and cup outings the Swans have recorded six wins, six losses, and five draws.
The Hammers are having a great season but they themselves have been very in and out of late, recording just one win in their last six outings, drawing three and losing two.
I honestly can't split these two but with Wilfried Bony away on internation duty I wouldn't put anyone off laying the home side, but my preference is to back the outsider of all three possible outcomes in the Match Odds market.
Recommended Bet
Back The Draw @ 3.55/2
West Brom 2.0811/10 v Hull 4.3100/30; The Draw 3.55/2
If Tony Pulis can have the same affect on West Brom as he did when he joined Crystal Palace then we can expect the Baggies to be challenging for a top 10 finish in no time.
Pulis will certainly need to weave his magic as soon as possible if his side are to pull away from a relegation scrap that threatens to involve as manay as up to seven or eight clubs. The signs were good in the FA Cup last week when Pulis' first game in charge resulted in a 7-0 win, albeit against non-league opposition.
And prior to that result the new manager sat in the stands as he watched his side earn an excellent draw at West Ham.
The Tigers sit just one point above the Baggies but that is thanks to wins over Sunderland and Everton over the Christmas period that ended a run of 10 league games without awin. Steve Bruce's men performed well at the Stadium of Light no doubt, but they met a very out of form Everton side on home soil and they are yet to convince me that they've turned the corner.
This is a crucial game for both sides, but it's hard to get away from the Pulis factor so a home win has to be the call.
Recommended Bet
Back West Brom to Win @ 2.0811/10
You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73
Premier League 2014/15 Season P/L
Staked: 115 pts
Returned: 121.20 pts
P/L: + 6.20 pts
*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet
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