Football Bet of the Day: Greece is the word for goals

Win or lose, try to stay off the Ouzo

It's been a tricky week so far for Kevin Hatchard, but he's hoping a trip to Greece can spark a revival.

Asteras Tripolis v PAOK
Saturday January 10, 17:30

So Dijon weren't as red-hot as we thought. Our home banker turned into a nightmare, as the hosts had a man sent off just before the break, and collapsed to a 3-0 defeat to Tours. Dijon's 100% home record went up in smoke, and so did our bet.

We'll drown our sorrows in Greece, but not with Ouzo, as I know from personal experience that it can have the corrosive effect of paint stripper. On the same night I sampled it I ended up in an Athens club called "Club Baz". It wasn't the most elegant venue (cages with dancers in them are never a sign of class), and we later discovered that our guide book referred to the club as "a place where rival football fans meet to fight." Lovely stuff.

Two Greek rivals go head-to-head this evening, hopefully without the fighting, as Asteras Tripolis take on PAOK. Asteras were promoted to the top flight in 2008, and they've since enjoyed the most successful spell in their history. They have qualified for the Europa League in each of the last three seasons, and in 2013 they got to their first ever Greek Cup final, pushing Olympiakos into extra time before losing 3-1.

I've seen a fair bit of Asteras this season in my capacity as this website's Europa League columnist, and although they failed to emerge from the group stage, they gave Besiktas and Spurs a few scares in Greece. They are capable of playing on the front foot, and in the Greek Superleague they have scored a healthy 25 goals in 16 games.

You might be put off an overs bet by the fact that only one of Asteras' last eight outings have featured three goals or more, but if you look at their whole season, backing Over 2.5 Goals would have paid out in 16 of their 32 games in all competitions. If we look purely at home games, that 50/50 split is still in evidence, with eight of the 16 outings featuring three goals or more.

So half of Asteras' matches tend to pay out on an Over 2.5 Goals bet, but what about the leaders PAOK? Well, they tend to be pretty freewheeling. The men from Thessaloniki have seen nine of their last 11 games in all competitions feature three goals or more. They have the second-best attack in the league (36 goals scored in 16 games), but they have leaked 19, the worst defensive record in the top five.

PAOK have seen five of their seven Super League away games feature three goals or more, and I'm struggling to see why Over 2.5 Goals should be trading at a hefty 2.3611/8. If it comes off, maybe we can all go to Club Baz for an Ouzo. On second thoughts, make that a vodka and coke.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.3611/8

2015 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 5

Points Returned: 2.81

P/L: -2.19 points