Derby v Nottingham Forest: Patience can pay dividends

Stakes will be even higher than usual in the big East Midlands derby at the iPro Stadium

Saturday's live Championship game is the huge East Midlands derby and Andy Tongue thinks we can land a winner at a juicy price, by backing the home side to prevail...eventually

Derby v Nottingham Forest
Saturday 17 January
12:15
Live on Sky Sports 1

Derby

We've seen plenty of the Rams on the box over the past month or so but they put in their best performance of the season on the road last weekend to stand up to Ipswich's physical challenge and grab a hard-fought 1-0 victory. Steve McClaren's men have been outfought on a few occasions away from the iPro Stadium but at Portman Road they showed they can mix it with some of the division's more physical sides as well as playing the eye-catching, attacking stuff.

It was a tight contest as predicted here but pleasing to start the year landing the best bet as we recommended backing under 2.5 goals at a nice 1.9210/11. The three points took them joint top of the table with Bournemouth, who were beaten at home by Norwich, and sets them up nicely for the biggest game of the season as far as the fans are concerned.

Derby have been strong in front of their own fans this season, winning seven and losing just one of their 12 matches at the iPro. Midfielder John Eustace will be suspended after being sent-off for a second yellow card in injury-time last Saturday but McClaren isn't short of options to replace him - Craig Bryson and Oscar Mascarell to name just two.

Nottingham Forest

If Derby are on the up after a pre-Christmas wobble then things have gone from bad to worse for their bitter rivals up the A52. Forest have now gone nine games without a win and won just one of their last 20 games in all competitions.
It's all a far cry from when the rivals met at the City Ground back in September with Forest unbeaten and flying high at the top of the table, while Derby had five fewer points following a sluggish start to the season.

Stuart Pearce, for all his status as a legend at the club, must be teetering on the edge and a bad loss here could be the end for the former England defender. There were rumours he had been sacked after last week's 2-0 defeat at home to Sheffield Wednesday but he will still be in charge for this game at least. Billy Davies lost his job as Forest boss after a 5-0 defeat at the iPro Stadium last March and Pearce will be hoping history doesn't repeat itself.

As I've mentioned previously, Forest's disastrous run has coincided with the absence through injury of their midfield playmaker and talisman Andy Reid, who's one of the best players in this division. And Pearce has ruled his vice-captain out of this weekend's clash dashing hopes that he might make a dramatic return.

Top goalscorer Britt Assombalonga limped off in the second-half last week and Pearce will be hoping the 13-goal striker is fit to start at the iPro Stadium. Gary Gardner made a promising debut as a substitute last weekend, after arriving on loan from Aston Villa, and will push for a start in midfield along with Henri Lansbury, who is back from suspension.

Half Time/Full Time

The home side are available to back at 1.774/5 in the match odds market, which appears a fair price at a first glance. However, this is a big derby clash - the most important game of the season for both sides - and I prefer to look elsewhere for some value and something with a bit more juice in it.

I think I may have found it in the half time/full time market where we can back draw/Derby at 5.04/1. This game will be played in an atmosphere akin to a cup tie and we know that form can often go out of the window in those kind of games. Admittedly the Rams have won their last four in all competitions, keeping four clean sheets in the process, but if the visitors want Pearce to keep his job they will know only a determined, fighting performance here will do.

I think Derby will enjoy the majority of the possession and territory but they may have to be patient. With McClaren able to use both Darren Bent and Jamie Ward from the bench they have plenty of additional firepower to call on and our patience, like the Rams', can be rewarded by backing them to take the three points in the second-half.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

As mentioned above I think this game will be a lot closer than the market suggests with Forest owing their fans a performance. I expect them to defend for their lives and with skipper Jack Hobbs due for his third appearance back after injury, we should see an improved showing at the back.

We know that there are strong trends in these Saturday lunchtime kick-offs. The Rams' 1-0 win at Ipswich last week means that rather fittingly 12 of the 15, 12:15 kick-offs so far this season have gone under the 2.5 line.

The noises coming out of Nottingham are that Pearce still has the backing of his players and I'm not expecting a repeat of last season's 5-0 when Davies had clearly lost the team and supporters. Backing this one to be another low-scoring game at 2.021/1 looks a sensible play if things pan out as predicted above.

Recommended Bets
Back Draw/Derby in the Half Time/Full Time market at 54/1
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.021/1

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 88 pts
Returned: 91.5 pts
P/L: + 3.5 pts

*2pts best bet if stated
1pt other recommended bets