четверг, 8 января 2015 г.

Championship Betting: Take the B-line to success with these three home sides

Neil Lennon's Bolton look a cracking bet to beat Leeds on Saturday

After a near two week break the Championship returns on Saturday and our resident previewer Mike Norman has highlighted three home sides who he believes are extremely good value to beat their out of form opposition...

Bolton 2.1211/10 v Leeds 4.03/1; The Draw 3.55n/a

I must confess, whenever I have a really strong feeling about a particular bet, and I shout if from the roof top and get all my colleagues to join me in punting the living daylights out of it... then it never lands.

That doesn't fill you with confidence does it? But I have to admit that this week's three Championship picks literally jumped off the page at me. I'm extremely surprised that all three of Bolton, Bournemouth, and Brentford are odds against, and I'm lumping on.

The Trotters have been in fine form since Neil Lennon took over, with their undoubted strength being the way they are playing at the Macron Stadium. From their last seven home games, Bolton have won six and drawn one - that draw being a very creditable 0-0 with highflying Ipswich.

During the good run of home results Lennon's men scored three in each of their wins against Brentford, Cardiff, and Wigan, while they also scored twice against play-off challenging Blackburn.

Leeds on the other hand are really struggling. They are without a win in six games, they've taken just one point from the last 15 available, and they haven't won away from home since mid September - the surprise victory at Bournemouth that day being their only away success in 14 road trips this season.

So to be able to back a bang in form side who are particularly strong at home at odds of 2.1211/10, against a club sitting 20th in the table, woefully out of form, and who are poor on their travels; well that seems like a steal to me.

Recommended Bet
Back Bolton to Win @ 2.1211/10 (best bet)

Bournemouth 2.0421/20 v Norwich 3.7511/4; The Draw 4.03/1

What more can we say about Bournemouth that hasn't already been said? They are undoubtedly this season's surprise package in the Championship, and believe me, you don't score the amount of goals that they do by just going on a 'good run'.

The Cherries are the real deal, and we must back them accordingly.

Eddie Howe's men sit top of the table with a very impressive goal difference of +29. They have lost just one of their last 17 matches, that being a Capital One Cup loss to Premier League outfit Liverpool.

In the last two months the Cherries have scored eight past Birmingham, six past Blackpool, five past Rotherham - all those three games were away from home may I add - five at home to Cardiff, three past Brighton and Reading, and two past in-form Ipswich. Basically, they score goals for fun and win football matches.

Norwich are seventh in the table but their form has been quite poor since the beginning of October, winning just four games from 15, prompting Neil Adams to step down from his manager role earlier this week.

The Canaries have won just one of their last eight away games and go into Saturday's fixture following back-to-back away defeats at Reading and League One outfit Preston in the FA Cup. A home win looks very likely here.

Recommended Bet
Back Bournemouth to Win @ 2.0421/20

Brentford 2.01/1 v Rotherham 4.03/1; The Draw 3.7511/4

Brentford have been another of this season's surprise packages and currently sit within the play-off places, three points ahead of seventh placed Norwich.

Mark Warbuton's men went on a golden run of form from early November, winning seven of their next eight league matches before losing to a superb Ipswich side. They then lost away at Wolves before being dumped out of the cup at home to Brighton last Saturday, so their most recent form is questionable.

But I'm willing to forgive the Bees their recent reversals as at least two of those can easily be excused, and a home game against relegation-threatened Rotherham ought to get them back on track.

Steve Evans' men sit 19th in the table following just one win in their last 12 league outings, and last Saturday they conceded five at home to Bouremouth in the FA Cup. Regardless of the side Evans fielded that day such a big loss at home, on top of some already poor form, will have dented confidence ever further withing the Millers' camp.

Brentford have been relatively strong at Griffin Park this season, so I'm surprised that they aren't trading at odds-on now that they are facing a struggling side in front of their own fans.

Recommended Bet
Back Brentford to Win @ 2.01/1

You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

Championship 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 92 pts
Returned: 113.88 pts
P/L: + 21.88 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

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