Barcelona v Atletico Madrid: Underdogs are overpriced

Cold As Ice: Lionel Messi is seven games without a goal against Atletico Madrid

Diego Simeone raises Atletico Madrid's game for their clashes with the Big Two and Tobias Gourlay believes odds-on Barcelona will struggle to beat them this weekend...

Barcelona v Atletico Madrid
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Barcelona 1.635/8 Atletico 6.411/2 draw 4.216/5

Match Odds

Barcelona have put together their worst first 17 games of a season since Pep Guardiola first took the reins in 2008/09.

Lionel Messi for one is apparently now yearning for a return to the pre-Guardiola days of Frank Rijkaard.

There's a Sportsbook market for where Messi might go if the club does not appease him by sacking Luis Enrique. Chelsea are favourites, but their 5.0 price reflects the strength of Messi's position in Catalonia. More likely than not, the stand-off will end with the club dismissing Enrique in order to keep their star player until the market deadline of 3 September and, they will hope, well beyond that too.

This weekend, Atletico Madrid look well equipped to take advantage of any slip in Catalonian preparations for one of the biggest games of the Spanish season.

Barcelona's most recent disappointing results have come on the road, where they have failed to score at both Getafe and Real Sociedad. Since losing 1-0 to Celta Vigo, they have scored five times in each of three subsequent Liga outings at the Camp Nou, but none of those opponents were led by Diego Simeone.

The Argentine helped Atletico go unbeaten through six home and away meetings with Barcelona last season (W1-D5-L0). He has already overseen a Liga win at the Bernabeu earlier this season. This week brought a 2-0 Copa home win over their city rivals, extending the Mattress Makers' unbeaten run (in 90 minutes) to five derbies.

Since March last year, Atletico have avoided defeat in 90 minutes in 8/8 meetings with the Big Two. Back the Draw or Away Double Chance at 2.546/4 this weekend.

Over / Under Goals

Seven of 11 Liga games between Simeone's Atletico and one of the Big Two have gone Over 2.5 Goals, including 2/5 when Atletico were the away side.

Last season's meetings of these two were low scorers: 6/6 finished with Under 2.5 Goals, which this time around is a marginal favourite at 1.9720/21.

More generally, Atletico's away games have produced more goals this season: 4/8 have gone Over 2.5 Goals, compared with Simeone's overall record of two-thirds staying Under 2.5 Goals (38/58).

The market hasn't resolved which side of the line it should be on and neither have we.

To Score

In particular, Simeone has slashed Lionel Messi's output in this fixture. Barcelona's main man has 17 career goals against Atletico - to put that in perspective, he's only scored more against Sevilla (18) - but failed to hit the back of the Atletico net at all last season.

In total the drought extends back seven matches. Messi will still lead the goalscorer markets and looks a lay at something around even money to score anytime.

Best Bet
Back Draw or Away Double Chance @ 2.546/4