Against All Odds: Moths to be knocked off the Villa Park nets

Raheem Sterling is back from a break

It's Premier League action for Paul Robinson this afternoon as he is expecting a rare show of goals at Villa Park with Liverpool in town.

Aston Villa v Liverpool
Saturday January 17, 15:00 GMT

It's been a troubled few months for Paul Lambert after his team's bright start to the campaign and some of the fans are scheduled to protest against him today. Scoring goals has been the issue as despite having the services of Christian Benteke, Gabby Agbonlahor and Andreas Weimann, the Scot hasn't been able to find the right balance between defence and attack.

If there's one side that they will feel confident about scoring against though it's Liverpool. The Reds have conceded 27 goals so far this term and that's the same amount as Hull and Stoke. Simon Mignolet's confidence is in tatters and while the new look back three kept a clean sheet at Sunderland last weekend, I'm not overly convinced by them just yet.

Despite their defensive troubles, Brendan Rodgers' men are on a bit of a roll at present as it's only one defeat in 13 in all competitions. Four of their last five outings have ended in victory, with three of those rewarding under 2.5 layers.

In fact, six of Liverpool's last eight away from Anfield have finished with three goals or more and with a well-rested, Raheem Sterling, back in the team today, I expect the 2005 Champions League winners to give the Villa defence all sorts of problems.

This selection may be dismissed by some readers given that Aston Villa are involved, but there are genuine reasons to believe that we will see some goals in this one. That's why, with under 2.5 trading at around the 1.855/6 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.     

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Aston Villa v Liverpool @ 1.855/6

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 15 pts
Returned: 13.05 pts
P/L: - 1.95 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)