Against All Odds: Anchovies to dent the Yellow Submarine's defence

Villarreal are heading in the right direction

A pair of in-form teams meet in Spain's La Liga tonight and Paul Robinson thinks that the goals will flow when Malaga host Villarreal.

Malaga v Villarreal
Saturday January 10, 17:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 5

A disappointing return from the winter break was put behind them on Tuesday as Malaga won their Copa del Rey fixture against Levante. Prior to the shock defeat at home to Almeria last weekend, The Anchovies had won three in a row. In fact, they'd actually won eight out of 10 in the league, with their two defeats coming to Atletico and Real Madrid.

As far as the goals go, with 21 scored and 17 conceded so far this term, their matches may only be averaging 2.24 goals each time, however 10 of their 17 outings would have rewarded under 2.5 layers. Half of those 10 came in their last half dozen at La Rosaleda and they haven't failed to score in front of their own fans since Barcelona were in town back in September.

Villarreal have had a very similar run as that of their opponents of late. They entered the winter break having won five on the spin, but they then disappointed in a 2-2 draw at Elche on Saturday - having led 2-0 early on. Last year's sixth placed finishers then earned a decent victory over Real Sociedad in the cup and they will be hopeful of picking up a result this evening.

Marcelino's men have netted 29 times so far this term, and with 16 conceded at the other end, their fixtures are averaging a healthy 2.65 goals per 90 minutes. Just under half have had three or more and that includes three of their last half dozen on the road. 

If The Yellow Submarine defend how they did at Elche last week, then their defence will be sunk against this Malaga attack. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.784/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.    

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Malaga v Villarreal @ 1.784/5

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 8 pts
Returned: 10.77 pts
P/L: + 2.77 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)