вторник, 2 декабря 2014 г.

The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2014/15: Round 14

Big Sam's West Ham are fifth in the table and going well

It's a midweek special for the Betting Battle with a full round of fixtures on Tuesday and Wednesday. All four editors are in need of a win, so where are their tenners headed?

Mike Norman
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.3512/5 in Arsenal v Southampton
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Well Saturday's bet went well! Dull, low-scoring game at Loftus Road I predicted - it ended being one of the most entertaining games in Premier League history with a reported record of 50+ shots at goal being registered. Yes, I'm in fine form!

On Wednesday Arsenal host Southampton and I'm banking on a glut of goals.

Rather like Manchester United you sense that the Gunners are capable of scoring two or three past anyone, while defensively they are far from rock solid at present and could be without both their recognised left-backs for the visit of the Saints.

So perhaps Arsene Wenger's immediate thoughts will be to go on the attack and outscore their midweek opponents, and with Danny Welbeck, Olivier Giroud, and Alexis Sanchez set to be in the starting line-up the Gunners certainly have goals in them.

Southampton themselves are at a crucial stage of the season, failing to beat Aston Villa before losing heavily to Man City at the weekend. My feeling is that Ronald Koeman's men will aim to bounce back immediately - and go on the attack themselves at the Emirates - rather than try to defend first and see what happens.

An early goal will be ideal, so it's encouraging that when these two sides met a few months ago in the League Cup we witnessed three goals before half time. I'm hoping for something similar on Wednesday night in what should be a very entertaining game between two decent teams.

Mike Norman 2014-15 P/L: -7.60

Joe Dyer
Back West Ham @ 3.1511/5 v West Brom
Tuesday, 20:00

Boo hoo! It was a return to losing ways last weekend but we have a quick chance to seek out a sweet winner and it's to the Hawthorns I go with a back of in-form over out-of-form. 

I always start each week with a glance at the various Premier League markets just to see what jumps out and West Ham's Match Odds price was the one that really stuck. 

Sam Allardyce's side sit in fifth following an impressive start to the season and just notched league win no.6 over Alan Pardew's previously high-flying Newcastle. The team is nicely balanced in all departments and should welcome Enner Valencia back to the fold for this trip to the Midlands. 

By contrast Alan Irvine's Baggies are in a spot of bother after three consecutive defeats, though admittedly at the hands of tricky opponents in the form of Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle. Look at the wider form, however, and there has been just one win since October. 

I'm rarely that keen on backing an away side to win, but West Ham have a similarly tricky profile to the three teams West Brom have just played. I see the draw as a big runner here but I'm just swayed by a confident West Ham against a side whose own fans were chanting against their own manager during their most recent defeat. 

Joe Dyer 2014-15 P/L -19.10

Luke Moore

Back Crystal Palace to beat Aston Villa at 2.1211/10
Tuesday, 20:00

While Stoke were unlucky not to beat Liverpool at the weekend, it was perhaps a bit of a fanciful one. A fanciful one that didn't pay off. Still, onwards and and upwards and I think I've found a good-priced bet to get back on track on Tuesday night.

Crystal Palace aren't too bad at all at home; they have no problems scoring goals, were the better team last time they played at Selhurst Park, against Liverpool, and should have no problem putting a poor Aston Villa side to the sword. Put simply, Villa can't score, don't really know what type of team they are and are going to seriously struggle to stay up this season.

Paul Lambert's men may be slightly better on the road than they are at Villa Park, but they've only managed a measly three goals away so far this season. Palace can beat them easily. At an odds-against price, it's a good bet.

Luke Moore 2014-15 P/L: -34.30

Dan Thomas
Back Swansea and Both Teams to Score v QPR at 29/10 (Sportsbook)
Tuesday, 19:45

The ability to end winning runs via the medium of Battle picks - both Southampton and Newcastle in the space of five days - is making me feel quite powerful, but it's not helping my P/L one bit. But a chance to get back on track quickly with the midweek fixtures.

Swansea were slightly disappointing when being held by Crystal Palace on Saturday but they will see the visit of the league's worst away side - no points in six games and just two goals - as the perfect opportunity to get back on track.

A price of 1.758/11 on the home win is more than fair given QPR's away form and the Swans' decent home record (four wins in seven) but I'm going to take a chance to get chunkier odds and double it up with both teams to score.

That dreadful away scoring record makes it a risky bet, but QPR should be in confident mood in front of goal after hitting three past Leicester at the weekend and then there's the Charlie Austin factor of course - he's now scored 26 goals since the start of last season.

With Opta telling us there have been 13 goals scored in the last three Premier League matches between the sides I'm happy to back an entertaining home win.

Dan Thomas 2014-15 P/L: -52.70

A 10 bet is placed on each selection on Betfair's Exchange. Profits are calculated before commission.

Editors 2014/15 Season P/L

1. Mike Norman: -7.60
2. Joe Dyer: -19.10
3. Luke Moore: -34.30
4. Dan Thomas: -52.70

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