среда, 17 декабря 2014 г.

The Big Wednesday Multiple: Massive value in German clash

The Hoffenheim players can't believe how big their odds are

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections...

Bet 1: Hoffenheim (HOME) @ 3.1 (21/10)  

A couple of victories from their last three outings have put Hoffenheim back on the front foot again after a run of three successive defeats. They are up to seventh in the Bundesliga and are only being kept out of the European places by goal difference.

At their home of the Rhein-Neckar Arena, Markus Gisdol's side have lost just once since the middle of March - winning five of their last six in all competitions. 

Opponents, Bayer Leverkusen are up in third place in the division but they are six points behind second and only one point ahead of Hoffenheim. They have qualified for the next phase of the Champions League, but in domestic action, it's just three wins in 10.

Roger Schmidt's men have fallen to two defeats in their three most recent away trips and they were beaten 3-2 the last time they faced the Sinsheim based club.

Bet 2: PSG (AWAY) @ 1.33 (1/3)  

This is a last 16 Cope de la Ligue tie that should end in a relatively straightforward away win. PSG are by far and away the best team in France and while they will certainly rest a few of their bigger names this evening, the quality they have coming off the bench will be more than enough.

Laurent Blanc will also have his players fired up after a shock 1-0 defeat at Guingamp at the weekend and I can see the frustrations being taken out on their opponents here.

Ajaccio finished bottom of Ligue One last year and they are only 12th in Ligue Two after 17 fixtures. They are on a six match unbeaten run but they haven't faced anyone of note during that period, and for my money, it wouldn't matter if they came into this game having not lost all season as PSG will simply outclass them.

Bet 3: Bournemouth v Liverpool (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.75 (3/4) - Live on Sky Sports 1 at 19:45 GMT

Bournemouth have fired their way to the top of the Championship, thanks largely in part to their 44 goals scored in this campaign. That is six more than any other team in the division and it has helped their matches average 3.24 goals each time.

Obviously tonight is a different test entirely as they are playing for a place in the last four of the Capital One Cup, but I can't see Eddie Howe changing his approach.

Liverpool on the other hand have struggled for goals this term but there were signs on Sunday that they would start flowing soon. Plenty of chances were created at Old Trafford but none were taken. The defence are still struggling so a clean sheet is a big ask at Dean Court, but The Reds have at least scored three at Leicester and two at Ludogorets within the last three weeks.

Bet 4: Tottenham v Newcastle (Under 2.5 goals) @ 2.25 (5/4)  

Tottenham have shown improvement of late and they recorded a 2-1 win at Swansea on Sunday. That match went over 2.5 goals but prior to that they lost 1-0 at Besiktas and drew 0-0 at home to Crystal Palace.

In fact, three of their last five at White Hart Lane have resulted in under 2.5 goals and that includes a 2-0 success over Brighton in the last round of this competition. 

Newcastle may have been beaten 4-1 at The Emirates on Saturday but that is nothing to be overly concerned about. After a shaky start, Alan Pardew's side are up to eighth in the Premier League and the supporters will surely lay off him completely if he can deliver some silverware.

As far as the goals go, four of their last five away from St James' Park have finished with two goals or fewer and they even managed to keep a clean sheet at Manchester City in the last 16 of the Capital One Cup.

Recommended Multiple
Back Hoffenheim @ 3.1 (21/10)
Back PSG @ 1.33 (1/3)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Bournemouth v Liverpool @ 1.75 (3/4)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Tottenham v Newcastle @ 2.25 (5/4)

The Multiple pays approximately 16.23 (15/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 50 pts
Returned: 100.57 pts
P/L: + 50.57 pts
(2013 P/L: - 15.49 pts)

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