The Big Match Tactical View: Everton v QPR

Harry Redknapp hasn't seen QPR win away this season

Monday night's match pits Roberto Martinez against Harry Redknapp, a clash of opposing managerial styles. Michael Cox assesses the tactical battle, while professional trader Alan Thompson provides betting insight...

Everton v QPR
Monday 20:00, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Everton 1.51/2, QPR 8.27/1, The Draw 4.77/2.

Pundits often tell us that the key to avoiding relegation is winning your home matches, but QPR can't hope to survive this season without improving their away form. Harry Redknapp's side have collected the eighth-most points at home, but their record on the road is disastrous.

Seven matches, seven defeats, two goals scored and 17 conceded is a truly atrocious run, although it's worth considering that all of these seven defeats have been at teams currently in the top half of the Premier League table. 

Everton, surprisingly, aren't in the top half, and have only collected nine points from seven games at Goodison Park this season. Roberto Martinez's side aren't playing with the flair and confidence of 2013/14, although this should be an ideal opportunity to get their season back on track with a convincing win.

Martinez has a problem in midfield here, with Gareth Barry suspended and James McCarthy doubtful, although there's a chance the latter could be fit enough to return alongside Mohamed Besic. 

The key, however, is Ross Barkley - he hasn't yet recreated the form he showed last season, and he has a great responsibility for connecting midfield and attack through clever movement and purposeful dribbling. If he's heavily involved, Everton will create chances.

Barkley has been used in a variety of roles in recent weeks, and Martinez might use his midfield selection problems to use him in a deeper role alongside Besic, which would allow Samuel Eto'o to play just behind Romelu Lukaku upfront. Everton don't always look comfortable in this system - Barkley prefers playing as a number ten, and the side can appear disjointed with two forwards - but it could be a logical approach against a team who will play defensively, and invite pressure.

Steven Naismith is another doubt, but Martinez is likely to pick two attacking players on the flanks: Kevin Mirallas has been a regular on the left, but on the right Martinez has used Barkley, Leon Osman and Seamus Coleman in the last three matches. Aiden McGeady would offer a more direct approach, and this should be key against Armand Traore, who often gets into strange positions and seems too passive defensively.  Coleman should revert to right-back, and will attempt to attack past QPR's probable makeshift left-sided midfield, Leroy Fer.

Redknapp is without Charlie Austin after his red card last weekend against Burnley, which means Bobby Zamora is likely to lead the line, probably with support from Niko Kranjcar or Eduardo Vargas - both can play either on the flank, or in a more advanced position. It might be about who Redknapp thinks will be better at tracking Leighton Baines, rather than who is more likely to provide a threat in the final third.

I fear for QPR in deep positions. Joey Barton and Karl Henry is a combination boasting energy and tenacity, but intelligent players like Barkley and Lukaku floating between the lines might prove problematic. Steven Caulker and Richard Dunne, meanwhile, lack pace - they won't be looking forward to facing Lukaku.

QPR can probably only provide a surprise by excelling on the counter-attack. Zamora can hold up the ball, but the speed of Vargas should be the key to the away side's approach, especially with Everton possibly being light in midfield. He can turn defence into attack swiftly, and that will be required here considering QPR won't see much of the ball.

I fancy an Everton victory, but 1.51/2 seems rather short considering their poor home form and selection worries in midfield - and QPR are improving, too - so I'll lay the home side.

Recommended Bet
Lay Everton at 1.51/2 

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

I think this is a fascinating game on Monday evening, on one hand we have Everton who have won just one of their last six Premier League starts and they welcome a Queens Park Rangers side who are yet to pick up a single point on the road. The Rs have played at Goodison Park six times in the Premier League, winning three and drawing once but Everton have won two of the last three by a 2-0 scoreline.

Queens Park Rangers away form on the face of it looks horrific, P7 L7, but it is important to know that all seven games have been against sides currently occupying a top half position in the League. In six of their seven defeats the home side has scored two or more goals. For me though possibly a bigger problem than their poor away record is the fact that they travel to Merseyside without the services of leading goalscorer Charlie Austin who is responsible for 50% of their goals this season.

The Toffees have had a real mixed start to the season and currently sit in 12th place with 18 points, they have the worst home defensive record in the league conceding 13 goals in their seven home starts BUT nine of those goals came from two games, when Chelsea put six past them and Crystal Palace three. Needless to say Goodison Park has seen more Premier League goals (even with a 0-0 against Swansea) than any other ground with 26 and average of 3.71 goals per game.

I think ultimately, Everton will prove to have too much for Queens Park Rangers and will be backing them to win 2-0 @ 7.6 in the correct score market with a saver for that stake on over 2.5 goals @ 1.88.