Southampton v Manchester City: European comedown could hit champions in tough away fixture

How much has Tuesday night taken out of City?

Sunday's early kick-off pits second against third with the visitors fancied for the win, but how much will Tuesday night's stirring victory have taken out of the Premier League champions? Joe Dyer can't resist opposing City with a big-priced selection...

Southampton v Manchester City
Sunday November 30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Southampton 

All good things must come to an end and Saints' five game winning streak was stopped by Aston Villa in midweek. Unfairly perhaps, punters will now be asking whether the south coast side are heading for rockier times after sailing smoothly through the first third of the season that brought eight wins, alongside just two defeats and two losses. Southampton were never supposed to be this good, goes the argument, so results should soon fall back into line. 

That may come to pass, but the numbers stacked up so far this season are ultra-impressive and paint a picture of a club in rude health - five victories and a draw from six home games, 17 goals scored and just one conceded. 

Steven Davis is the only major injury doubt for Ronald Koeman to contend with.  

Manchester City 

There's been a bit of everything in City's results so far this season - nine wins, five draws, six defeats - but they come into this match on an undoubted high. Sergio Aguero's second hat-trick of the season secured a come-from-behind win against Pep Guardiola's 10-man Bayern Munich side on Tuesday night to keep City's Champions League dream alive. From a high of 10.09/1 City are now even money to qualify from Group E where they face a final day shootout against Roma to make the knockout stages. 

David Silva is still injured and looks unlikely to play.

Match Odds 

This is not just second v third, but also upstart v establishment, and the Betfair market is favouring City to maintain Premier League order. Manuel Pellegrini's men are 2.3611/8 to win with Saints 3.39/4 and the draw 3.613/5. 

It's understandable that City are favourites but Southampton's price has to be considered big given they have beaten five of the six visitors to St Mary's this season.  

City's record after European nights is poor anyway - they have won once, lost once and drawn twice in the top-flight post-Champions League this season and Tuesday night's exertions against Bayern will surely have taken their toll on the visitors, both physically and mentally. 

Bar beating Aston Villa 2-0, Pellegrini's side have gone behind in every post-European game and it could be that Southampton keep that trend going. If they did so they certainly represent a decent trade. 

If pushed to take a Match Odds bet, I'd be swayed by the draw. Saints go ahead, City peg them back. If the 3.613/5 on the draw doesn't tempt, how does a monstrous 18.017/1 on Southampton/Draw in the Halftime/Fulltime market sound?

Under/Over 2.5 Goals 

With seven clean sheets in 12 games the home defence is still the Premier League's best and Unders would be my bet but at a shade of odds-against there's not enough in the price to sway me into a bet. These two are the league's joint second top scoring clubs after all. 

Sidemarket Selection - To Score 

It would be remiss of me not to alight on Aguero following Wednesday night's brilliance. The Argentinian has scored 17 goals in 18 appearances for City this season and will trade at a shade under evens in the Anytime Goalscorer market. In a game where I don't anticipate a huge amount of goals it's not a bet for me but I'm just keeping you informed should you want to back the little genius in blue! 

Recommended Bet
0.5pt Back Southampton/Draw @ 18.017/1 

Joe Dyer's Premier League P&L

Staked: 17 pts
Returned: 13.74 pts
P/L: -3.26 pts