вторник, 2 декабря 2014 г.

League One Betting: Clough's Blades could be blunted this Friday evening

Sheffield United manager Nigel Clough

Alan Dudman returns to preview Friday night's encounter at Bramall Lane, whilst Swindon and Preston look good enough to register victories in League One on Saturday...

Sheffield United 1.728/11 v Notts County 5.39/2, the draw 4.03/1
Friday 19:45

Having put up Notts County last week to beat Yeovil, things were going ever so well until the usual late surge of goals, but I want to keep faith with Shaun Derry's side as they head to Yorkshire on Friday evening, in fact as 5.39/2 big outsiders, I wouldn't put anyone off throwing a couple of quid at them.

However, I'm more interested in laying the hosts at long-odds on, and considering the league positions of fifth against sixth and just one point difference, then 1.75/7 is far too short. Granted, United have improved in the last month or so, but the Magpies are very good on their travels. 

Lack of goals might be the thing here, and layers had chalked up  the under 2.5 market at 1.855/6 as early as Tuesday evening. The Blades have scored just 24 goals this season (the very same amount Derry's side have managed in total too), and for a club with automatic pretensions; they really need to get their shooting boots on. In fact, they mirror the team from last season, lots of crosses but a lack of cutting edge.

The Blades were held 1-1 at home to Oldham on Saturday with manager Nigel Clough saying his team 'we're not quite at it'. He'll be hoping striker Marc McNulty will be OK to play in his face mask, whilst fellow forward Michael Higdon is recovering from a hamstring injury. 

I won't bleat too much about Notts County's Saturday defeat, and I will draw the positives. Once again the side played for Derry, switching systems well when reduced to ten men. They really defended magnificently for most of the match, which is why I like them to get a result on Friday night. On the road they have kept five clean sheets this term and conceded just four in eight games, and they'll hopefully be very hard to break down this Friday. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Sheffield United @ 1.75/7

Yeovil Town 4.03/1 v Preston North End 2.0621/20, the draw 3.55/2

Watching BBC's Football League Show on Saturday night, the moustachioed Steve Claridge called League One a topsy-turvy division. I must admit that some results have been almost unexplainable, and Claridge is right, but victory for Preston this Saturday can take them top of the table - which will be at least a positive going into Christmas for the column (having tipped them up to win the title). 

North End addressed a terrible run of three defeats with victory at league leaders Bristol City on Saturday, a game in which Whites boss Simon Grayson got the tactics dead right. He matched City's back three with a front three, whilst he made sure their wing-backs were continually forced inside rather than bomb down the outside. Their shape and discipline was the best it's been for a while, and they should see this as a winnable match. 

Away from home the Lancastrians have been a lot tighter since their 4-0 win at Scunthorpe earlier this term. Six of their nine matches have been under 2.5 goals, and this looks a decent trading game for 0-0 into the second-half. The Glovers are a reliable 'unders' team too, with eight of their last 11 hitting the target. 

I never seem to get Yeovil right, and Saturday's 2-1 win at Notts County was a prime example. They had gone eight games without a win (losing five), whilst their goal tally was a pathetic two in eight matches before last weekend's double. See I'm not bitter. 

But at least we'll try and use Town's lack of goals to our advantage, as they have defensively been much better since the trio of loan additions made by under-pressure boss Gary Johnson. So with the home side's shot-shy forwards, Preston will be happy to sit deep and soak up the pressure, and they would have more of a goals threat with Jermaine Beckford recently signed too. 

Recommended Bets
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.910/11
Back Preston North End to win @ 2.0621/20

Swindon Town 1.855/6 v Fleetwood Town 4.84/1, the draw 3.65n/a

Having waxed lyrical about Mark Cooper's young team last month, they struggled in a few matches when I tipped them. Since then however,  they have shown themselves to be top quality at this level with victories against the League One big boys; Preston, Bristol City and Peterborough. 

In fact, Town are now on 35 points and like Preston have a chance of taking the top position in the table with a win. Overall their form is WWWLW and they seem to have their swagger and mojo back. For 45 minutes at the Posh last weekend they looked exceptional, but not for the first time after a comfortable first-half, they almost sat back and invited the goal. However, they had 60 per cent of possession at London Road, which is fairly ominous for Fleetwood this weekend. 

There's usually a decent youngster to write about in glowing terms at the County Ground, and the latest one is on-loan Norwich defender Harry Toffolo. He really has impressed in his seven appearances so far at left-back, and his stay has been extended further. There are hopes that the 19-year-old will play at the highest level, as he can pass, defend and certainly tackle. 

Fleetwood in the meantime have racked up six losses from nine on their travels this season, and their plan might be in alignment with most visitors to Wiltshire this season, and that's to press high up the pitch and stop the hosts playing out. 

However, Swindon could have 'the Terminator' Michael Smith back fit, and with Jon Obika now at 100 per cent, I would be surprised if the Robins cannot register the maximum here. With their tendency to switch off sometimes though, and the fact that Fleetwood have managed to net in all but three away games this term, I quite like the both teams to score angle. 

Recommended Bets
Back Swindon to win @ 1.855/6

Rochdale 2.56/4 v Oldham Athletic 2.9215/8, the draw 3.613/5

Oldham are swiftly becoming the draw specialists in League One - overtaking my favourites Walsall. In fact, the Latics have recorded nine stalemates so far this campaign (a division high), with a staggering four 1-1's. And you guessed it, they gained that very result last weekend at Sheffield United - a game in which they looked the better team. 

The 1-1 is an obvious trading point here, as a nice early goal puts the in-running bet in a good position. Indeed, the majority of Oldham's draws have come on the road with six in nine (whilst winning only once away from Boundary Park - or whatever it's called these days). 

Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.613/5

League One 2014/15 P/L (all selections one point)

- 12.76 pts

Комментариев нет:

Отправить комментарий