Nottingham Forest v Leeds: No Christmas cracker at the City Ground

Stuart Pearce has seen his side struggle without midfield playmaker Andy Reid

With two sides struggling for form meeting in Saturday's second TV game, Andy Tongue says that backing Under 2.5 Goals is the smart play...

Nottingham Forest v Leeds
Saturday, 17:15
Live on Sky Sports 1

Nottingham Forest

Another side who started the season strongly, Forest then went on a very poor run before picking up a couple of recent wins over Norwich and Wolves, though they still have just two victories from their last 14 matches.

They have lost just one of their last five but two draws and a defeat is the return for the last three games. At home they scored twice in the last five minutes for a huge win over Norwich before an improved second-half performance earned a point against draw specialists Charlton. 

They then went to another side who are partial to a point apiece, Rotherham, last week and played out another stalemate, this one ending goalless. Forest didn't create much in attack at the New York Stadium - failing to register an effort on target with the exception of a disallowed Dexter Blackstock header - and with midfield playmaker Andy Reid still not quite back from the injury which coincided with their downturn in form, they are struggling to break down the opposition.

The return of Jack Hobbs will also help and Stuart Pearce will be pinning a lot of hopes for the New Year on the pair combining to add some creativity and spark in the final third, to relieve some of the heat he is starting to feel at the City Ground.

Leeds

A home defeat to Fulham last week saw Neil Redfearn's side slip down to 19th place after three losses in their last four matches - the exception being that impressive win over Derby at Elland Road. 

With owner Massimo Cellino set to be banned by the authorities the uncertainty surrounding the club seems to be having an adverse affect on performances on the pitch. With the club also set to receive a transfer embargo in January for failing to pass the FFP rules, Redfearn will know he needs to try and haul his side away from the bottom three.

United's away record this season is not encouraging - they have won just the once in 10 games, drawing twice and losing seven. That includes the last three on the spin - at Ipswich, Blackburn and Cardiff respectively - and five of the last six. Redfearn has said that he will rethink the way his side approach away games ahead of this clash but says that he won't compromise his commitment to playing attractive, passing football.   

Souleymane Doukara was particularly poor against Fulham and could be replaced by Billy Sharp in the starting line-up here.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Leeds' away form is poor admittedly but, for me, Forest are too short to pile into at 1.768/11 with any confidence - especially with just two wins from the last 14 and Reid and Hobbs both still out. 

However, Pearce knows a win for his side will keep them right in touch with the group in and around the play-off spots and that grinding out victories when you are not playing particularly well is the way to get out of the Championship.

Although this looks like a good opportunity for Forest to do just that, Leeds won't make things easy. They should have good pre-Christmas travelling support at the City Ground and at the very least, I'm expecting something of an improved defensive performance on the road as they get men behind the ball and look to nick something either on the break or from a set piece. That makes Under 2.5 Goals look an attractive play at 2.01/1 and I'm tipping that up as the recommended bet here.

Correct Score

If the game goes I'm expecting then it could be that a single goal is enough to edge it and there's no dispute that home side are more likely to be the ones who get it.

In Britt Assombalonga they have a man with 12 goals to his name already this and although not the most skilful and elegant of strikers he has the happy habit of being in the right place in the opposition's penalty box.

In contrast the visitors looked very poor in attack last week and Redfearn's options aren't great, though Sharp may well start here as suggested above. Forest can be backed to win 1-0 at 7.613/2 and that's worth a small bet to half-stakes as probably the most likely outcome here.

Recommended Bets
Back Under 2.5 goals at 2.01/1
Back 1-0 in the correct score market at 7.613/2

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 73 pts
Returned: 76.7 pts
P/L: + 3.7 pts

*2pts best bet if stated
1pt other recommended bets