League Two Betting: York to take advantage of Dons

Russ Wilcox says he will put out an attacking team as York try to break their duck of winning at home

York City can finally win at home in the league, says Ian Lamont, because AFC Wimbledon might be feeling a little drained, while other home wins should come for Exeter, Portsmouth and Newport...

York 2.35/4 v AFC Wimbledon 2.77/4; the draw 3.45n/a

Gut feeling plays a huge part in predicting. You can study facts, form and statistics as much as you like. But in sport there is also that little bit of something some like to call luck.

But mostly a good hunch is based on the facts and making a good assumption.

This match is a case in point. Even the layers expect York to win, given the home win is priced shortest of the three options. Why, is a reasonable question, when their best result at Bootham Crescent is a draw (they have six)? The teams have already drawn here, in the FA Cup.

It is the cup which is key to Russ Wilcox's side being favourites for this match: they had a week off last week and the Dons didn't. It is more than that, though. Neal Ardley's men beat the League Two leaders - plus they did it away from home where they have a poor record this season. It was against the grain.

York will be fresher after a free week. AFC Wimbledon will be tired, emotionally as well as physically, as well as excited about hosting Liverpool in January.

They might be thinking they have a draw in the bag after the previous 1-1 result.

For the hosts, it is about time they beat this hoodoo about not winning at home: it is merely mental.

On their last outing they drew at Plymouth, where it is hard to get points, after re-signing Diego De Girolamo on loan from Sheffield United and also took in Carlton Morris from Norwich. They will want to make the most of both until January 4. More will be expected of Jake Hyde as Wilcox promises to pick an attacking team.

For me, AFC Wimbledon might have the most feared strike pairing in the league according to some, of Matt Tubbs and Adebayo Akinfenwa but they have first to get the ball to them, which doesn't always prove easy. 

Recommended Bet
Back York @ 2.35/4

Portsmouth 2.0621/20 v Accrington 4.03/1; the draw 3.711/4

How do football clubs go about arranging their travel between games? It would certainly make sense for Accrington to stop off in Portsmouth then head straight for Devon where they face an FA Cup replay at Yeovil.

If they are returning to Lancashire on Saturday evening, all the travelling must weigh heavy on the players' minds. Combine that with Pompey's tremendous home record and 'Fortress Fratton' looks formidable for the visitors.

In league games, Andy Awford's men have only conceded six goals at home, while their last two matches have ended 3-0. The game before that they won 3-2. So goals for the host seem guaranteed, even before they signed Preston winger Lee Holmes on loan. With poor away form, a strong run at home is crucial to any hopes the Hampshire club have for promotion. Jed Wallace scoring six times in the last seven league and FA Cup matches is also a tremendous fillip. Craig Westcarr and Danny Hollands chipping in also gives them confidence.

Accrington, psychologically only perhaps, might be saving their energies for the FA Cup replay because the prize is a home tie with Manchester United - the sort of once in a lifetime opportunity on which 10-year budgets could be built.

Recommended Bet
Back Portsmouth @ 2.0621/20

Exeter 2.26/5 v Carlisle 4.03/1; the draw 3.55n/a

The Grecians delighted boss Paul Tisdale by showing character to claw back a draw against Burton in last weekend's only League Two match. Opta state they have recovered a League Two high 15 points from losing positions.

Having scored, unusually, from a set-piece, the hosts have lost only two of 10 at home and captain Scot Bennett has an eye on the play-offs. He is also hoping Cristian Ribeiro and Graham Cummings can add to their goals tally. Matt Oakley being pushed up front is a surprising development. 

Kyle Dempsey and Brad Potts, the latest on the Carlisle conveyor belt of young players, seem to be on the radar for higher-level clubs.

However, they and their team-mates have not performed well on the road and Exeter appear to be on the upward curve.

Recommended Bet
Back Exeter @ 2.26/5

Newport 2.111/10 v Stevenage 4.03/1; the draw 3.55/2

After a week's rest, Newport will be looking to pick up where they left off after a run of three draws and five wins in League Two has propelled them to seventh - no League Two side's current run is better, says Opta.

Midfielder Mark Byrne has penned a new contract, while manager Justin Edinburgh is trying to ruffle feathers by saying he could wield the axe in January to freshen up his squad.

He clearly feels, in the team's second season at this level, that they can do better than last year, when a great start faltered.

Striker Rene Howe's return in a reserve match after injury adds power to the elbow.
Stevenage, meanwhile, continue to be the Graham Westley circus, with the manager acting like Chelsea's Jose Mourinho and declaring he is the best while the world is against him. If he is not railing against being 'victimised' by officials, he is suggesting that Boro could have reached the Championship had he stayed in 2012.

He has one thing right: the way to success is to patiently and diligently work together. It is a gradual process. Much like has been built at Newport, who appear to have the upper hand at present. Even if Newport fall behind, one should not give up the bet: Opta state Stevenage have dropped a league high 10 points from leading positions, away from home.

Recommended Bet
Back Newport @ 2.111/10

P/L 2014-15

+8.93pt