Against All Odds: Value to be had in Porto with Lisbon in town

Boavista are on the up again

The price of Sporting Lisbon has forced Paul Robinson to make a foray into the Portuguese Primeira Liga as he feels that they simply have to be opposed at the current odds.

Boavista v Sporting Lisbon
Friday December 5, 20:30 GMT
Available on Betfair Live Video  

It's been a long road back for Boavista following a spell of misery on and off the field, but after six years, the Porto based club are once again plying their trade with the big boys of Portuguese football. They have acquitted themselves relatively well thus far as after 11 outings, they have amassed 10 points, leaving them in 13th place.

A total of nine of those points have come from five home fixtures and that is the key to this selection. Victories over Academica, Gil Vicente and Penafiel may not set the world on fire but a win is a win and when they faced better opposition - Benfica and Pacos de Ferreira - Armando Gonalves Teixeira's side were only beaten by a one goal margin.

Obviously, Sporting Lisbon fall into the category of better opposition but last year's runners up have won less than half of their matches this term and they also face a huge trip to Stamford Bridge on Wednesday in the Champions League. They likely still need a point to secure their passage into the last 16 of that competition and it wouldn't surprise me if they had one eye on that fixture.

Even if they didn't, Marco Silva's men have recorded just two victories from five attempts on the road this season and on their last one, they were beaten 3-0 at Vitria Guimares. In fact, their two wins came against the bottom two clubs in the division and when they faced the side who are currently third from bottom, they could only draw 1-1.

This is one of those selections where, in all likelihood, it will lose. That's not the most important thing in betting though as everything comes back to value, and we are getting plenty of value here. That's why, with their price currently trading at around the 1.292/7 mark, I have to make Sporting Lisbon my lay of the day.   

Recommended Bet
Lay Sporting Lisbon v Boavista @ 1.292/7

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 326 pts
Returned: 340.69 pts
P/L: + 14.69 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)