Bundesliga Betting: Bayern defence at risk from free-flowing Leverkusen

Can Hakan Calhanoglu (10) trouble the Bayern defence?

Bayern Munich have a strong grip on the Bundesliga title race, but Kevin Hatchard thinks their defence could be breached by an exciting Bayer Leverkusen side this weekend.

Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday December 6, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 1

The Bayern Munich steamroller trundles on, flattening all in its path. Pep Guardiola's men have won eight of their last nine Bundesliga games, keeping eight clean sheets in the process. Indeed, the bulletproof Bavarians have already racked up ten shut-outs in the league this season.

So, can anyone stop them, or even score against them? We might just have a candidate in Bayer Leverkusen, Roger Schmidt's freewheeling but maddeningly inconsistent entertainers. Die Werkself started the season superbly with wins over Borussia Dortmund and Hertha Berlin, had a big wobble, but have recovered to climb up to third in the standings.

In the absence of genuine challengers to Bayern's domestic supremacy, it's tempting to talk this up as a key fixture in the title race, but there's already a ten-point gap between the sides. Schmidt's Bayer have played some breathtaking football at times, but they might have to wait until next season to mount a serious challenge for top spot.

Bayer may find it tough to beat or even hold Bayern on home soil, but I'm tempted by the 1.8910/11 on offer for Both Teams To Score. Bayer have averaged nearly two goals per game this term, and they have an array of attacking talent at their disposal.

Playmaker Hakan Calhanoglu is my favourite player to watch in the entire division - the 20-year-old scored another stunning free-kick against Koln last week, and he has the potential to find the net from anywhere within 40 yards of the goal. Karim Bellarabi has been a revelation with his speed, direct running and eye for a goal, Heung-Min Son is scoring spectacular goals, and Josip Drmic is starting to put pressure on first-choice striker Stefan Kiessling.

Although Bayern aren't leaking many goals, they do give you a chance, and their opponents have often been guilty of wasteful finishing. Bayer have the players to punish those defensive lapses, and they've scored in each of their last five meetings with the German champions.

Recommended Bet

Back Both Teams To Score at 1.8910/11

Borussia Monchengladbach v Hertha Berlin
Saturday December 6, 14:30

After negotiating their first 18 competitive games of the season without suffering a single defeat, Borussia Monchengladbach have hit a sizeable bump in the road. Lucien Favre's Foals have lost their last three Bundesliga games, but I suspect this could be the weekend where they steady the ship.

Apart from their second-half collapse against Eintracht Frankfurt, Gladbach haven't dropped off massively in terms of performance, and their home record is still very strong. Opta tell us Gladbach have lost just one of their last eight home games against Hertha Berlin, and the club from the capital have been particularly poor on their travels this season, with just four points collected from six away games.

The continued absence of defensive bedrock Martin Stranzl is a blow, but Alvaro Dominguez is a fine replacement, and I think the likes of Max Kruse and Patrick Herrmann could run riot against a shaky Hertha defence.

Recommended Bet

Back Borussia Monchengladbach -0.5 & -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9110/11

Borussia Dortmund v Hoffenheim
Friday December 5, 19:30
Live on BT Sport Extra

80s songstress Yazz once sang "The Only Way is Up", and that certainly applies to Borussia Dortmund. Incredibly, Die Schwarzgelben have sunk to the foot of the table, and last weekend's 2-0 reverse at Eintracht Frankfurt was the perfect microcosm of their season. They gave away two horrendous goals, missed a bucketload of chances, and looked jittery throughout.

I'm sure Dortmund's inspirational coach Jurgen Klopp will drag his team out of trouble, and there is no way he'll be sacked. There are plenty of teams in the relegation mix who are worse off than BVB both in terms of quality of personnel and off-the-field infrastructure. An ongoing injury nightmare has prevented the selection of a settled side, but I think once those injuries clear up, BVB will start shooting up the standings. 

As I suggested they would in last week's column, Hoffenheim returned to winning ways against Hannover last weekend, but their old defensive demons have returned. The back four had huge gaps in the 4-3 win, and keeper Oliver Baumann is regularly making mistakes, which is a real concern after his solid start to the campaign. In Hoffe's first nine Bundesliga games of the campaign they conceded just seven goals, but they have now shipped 14 in the last four outings.

Klopp has described Friday night's game as "High Noon", and appropriately the coach is considering promoting one of his deputies. Veteran keeper Roman Weidenfeller could be benched after another howler against Frankfurt, with Mitch Langerak pushing hard to be given his chance. Shinji Kagawa and Henrikh Mkhitaryan could both lose their places, and in defence the hapless Matthias Ginter should make way for the fit-again Mats Hummels.

Given Dortmund's awful form (they have lost seven of their last ten BL games), it's impossible to support them at 1.558/15. That said, the quandary that I alluded to last week still exists. BVB are too short at odds-on, but they could turn it on at any stage, so I'm once again looking away from the Match Odds market. I fancy goals in this one, and it's worth noting that seven out of Hoffenheim's last eight games in all competitions have featured at least two goals before half-time. Both teams look shaky defensively, so back Over 1.5 First Half Goals at 2.26/5.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 1.5 First Half Goals at 2.26/5 

Hamburg v Mainz
Sunday December 7, 14:30
Live on ESPN

Hamburg produced one of their trademarked collapses at Augsburg last week, as a 1-0 lead became a 3-1 defeat. However, Joe Zinnbauer has got the Redshorts playing well at the Imtech Arena. They have won their last two home games against Bayer Leverkusen and in-form Werder Bremen, and they kept clean sheets in both games.

Hamburg playmaker Rafa Van der Vaart owes the club a good season, and he has netted two goals in his last three games, while Latvian speedster Artjoms Rudnevs has given the attack a much-needed injection of pace since replacing the struggling Pierre-Michel Lasogga. The loss of key defender Heiko Westermann is a blow - he's out until 2015 with knee ligament damage.

Mainz have faded after a good start, and they were spanked 4-1 by Schalke last week. Die Nullfunfer have taken just two points from their last five games, and they look defensively suspect. I think Hamburg can take advantage of Mainz's loss of confidence, and 2.186/5 is a fair price for the home win.

Recommended Bet

Back Hamburg to win at 2.186/5 

Kevin will be commentating on Eintracht Frankfurt v Werder Bremen on Sunday for TuneIn with talkSPORT. You can listen by searching for "Bundesliga English" on the TuneIn app or website 

2014/15 Bundesliga P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 52

Points Returned: 53.16

P/L: +1.16 points