Will River Plate blow their entire season?
The final of the Copa Sudamericana is finely poised after a 1-1 draw in the first leg and Paul Robinson is taking Atletico Nacional to avoid defeat inside 90 minutes.
River Plate v Atletico Nacional
Thursday December 11, 00:15 GMT
Live on Premier Sports and Betfair Live Video
The reigning champions of Argentina are trying to salvage their season after almost certainly throwing away their domestic league title. Resting players for their match with Racing Club a couple of weeks ago will only have paid off if they lift this trophy. A 1-1 draw in Colombia has put them on the front foot to do so, but I'm not convinced that they're certain to capitalise on that result.
Marcelo Gallardo's side have won just two of their last eight in all competitions and they were rather fortunate to record the two victories that they did. While confidence won't be at rock bottom among the players, there must be a few doubts in their mind and this won't be a walk in the park.
Atletico Nacional produced a huge performance at Sao Paulo in the second leg of the semi-final to only lose 1-0 and then win on penalties. I was convinced that the Brazilians would take them apart, but 'Los Verdolagas' did what they needed to do and made the final.
After taking a 1-0 lead in Colombia, Juan Carlos Osorio will have been disappointed that his men couldn't keep a clean sheet. They are quite capable of avoiding defeat inside 90 minutes here though and they won both the away legs of the quarters and last 16 by a goal to nil.
I expect this to be a very tight affair with the visitors being especially solid at the back. There's a good chance it will go the distance, so with River Plate trading at around the 1.794/5 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay River Plate v Atletico Nacional @ 1.794/5
2014 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 331 pts
Returned: 345.77 pts
P/L: + 14.77 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)
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