Against All Odds: Costa Rican duo to get among the goals

Expect some sexy football in Costa Rica tonight

December is always a month where Paul Robinson visits some of the more obscure footballing nations and he begins tonight with a trip to Costa Rica for the Primera Division Play-off second leg between LD Alajuelense and Deportivo Saprissa.

LD Alajuelense v Deportivo Saprissa
Tuesday December 9, 02:00 

They may have romped away with the Torneo de Invierno but the top four all qualify for the Final Stages and they lost the first leg of their semi-final by one goal to nil. That scoreline obviously still keeps them right in the mix for a place in the final but they would have hoped for more at a team who they outscored by 12 points during the regular campaign.

scar Ramrez's side know that they have to win tonight, but if they concede, they'll have to do it by a two goal margin. That's certainly something to bear in mind given the fact that they've kept just one clean sheet in their last six outings in front of their own fans. A total of five of their last seven at Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto have rewarded under 2.5 goal layers and there is a good chance that this will follow suit.

Deportivo Saprissa are the reigning champions but they could only manage a fourth placed finish during the league phase. That isn't too much of an issue as first is practically as good as fourth but seven defeats in 22 fixtures is a bit of a concern. Obviously they have a one goal lead ahead of tonight's game but it did take them until the 91st minute to break the deadlock.

As far as the goals go, with 39 scored and 28 conceded, their matches this term are averaging 3.05 goals each time. Exactly half have had three or more and while only two of their last five on the road have gone over 2.5, the three that missed out did so by just a single goal and the other two sailed over with ease.

Second legs are generally much more open than first legs and I expect this to be no different. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.738/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.    

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in LD Alajuelense v Deportivo Saprissa @ 1.738/11

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 329 pts
Returned: 345.77 pts
P/L: + 16.77 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)