Swansea v Tottenham: Spurs to find domestic bliss against vulnerable Swans

Mauricio Pochettino will be looking for Spurs to progress in domestic competitions, starting with Sunday's trip

Another Sunday, another big match for Tottenham and Andrew Atherley reckons Mauricio Pochettino's team are a solid bet at the Liberty stadium...

Swansea v Tottenham
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Swansea

The Swans had their best result of the season here just over a month ago when they beat Arsenal 2-1 and now they are looking to take another big scalp from north London, which would keep them ahead of Tottenham in the Premier League table.

Goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski is suspended following his sending-off in last week's 3-1 defeat at West Ham, so Gerhard Tremmel will deputise. Left-back Neil Taylor returns from a one-match ban.

Tottenham

Having already qualified for the knockout stage of the Europa League, coach Mauricio Pochettino was able to leave key players out of the final group match on Thursday night, which Besiktas won 1-0.

This is the start of a crucial period for Pochettino, with a two-month break from the Europa League during which Tottenham will be expected to make progress in the league as well as the two domestic cup competitions.

Only three of Tottenham's likely line-up here started against Besiktas, but the match in Istanbul was useful in giving right-back Kyle Walker his comeback after nine months out with injury and he is in contention to start here. Emmanuel Adebayor is unavailable after being given compassionate leave to go home to Togo.

Match Odds

This is a close-looking match and one way to play is to choose your most likely winner and back them on the Draw No Bet market, given that there may be nothing separating the teams by the end. Swansea are 1.784/5 DNB and Tottenham are 2.1211/10.

A major consideration is the Europa League factor, which seemed to affect the form of both teams last season and appears to have done the same again to Tottenham. 

Looking simply at the Premier League table, Swansea appear to be a slightly better side (eighth, a point ahead of 10th-placed Tottenham) but the picture might look different if Spurs had not had to cope with the demands of Thursday-night European matches.

Four of Tottenham's six Premier League defeats have come on Sundays following Europa League games, with the other two being explainable by the simple fact that they were away to Chelsea and Manchester City.

Their record in games that did not come three days after the Europa League is W3 D3 L2 and that solid record is more likely to be pertinent here, given that most of the first-choice players were rested this week.

When they have played teams outside the top six and not after Europa League games, Tottenham's record is W2 D2 L0, which may be a good form line.

Then there is the question of Swansea's record against high-quality opposition. They had a W0 D2 L10 record against the Premier League's big six last season, although that has improved to W2 D0 L2 this season (possibly due to the under-performance of some of the big six).

A key factor is that Swansea have not kept a clean sheet in any of those matches, last season or this, and that certainly makes them vulnerable, even if they have shown a greater win threat this season.

In that context it is notable that Tottenham's record when scoring this season is W6 D2 L3, which indicates a decent chance unless Swansea can find a way to shut them out.

On the plus side, Swansea have the best home record in the Premier League apart from the top three teams, although most of their games have been against bottom-half teams. Their home record against top-half teams is W1 D1 L1, and they have conceded every time.

Overall, Tottenham have a good record in the Premier League against Swansea - five wins and a draw from six meetings, and they have scored every time.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Tottenham are joint-second in the Premier League for games with over 2.5 goals (10 out of 15) and the rate goes up slightly when they are on the scoresheet themselves (eight out of 11), which is interesting in view of Swansea's low level of clean sheets against the bigger teams.

Tottenham's goals rate is also high on the road (five out of seven over 2.5 goals), which indicates they are susceptible at the back on road trips (only one clean sheet in seven, on the opening day at West Ham).

Swansea's goals record is less clear cut overall (eight over 2.5 goals this season, seven under) but six out of seven against top-half teams have had over 2.5 goals (Tottenham have had four out of seven over 2.5 goals in that category). 

Most of the form lines point to an entertaining match and over 2.5 goals is well priced at 1.9520/21.

Half Time/Full Time

For a big price with a sporting chance, it could be worth trying Swansea/Tottenham at 36.035/1 on the Half Time/Full Time.

Opta point out that Tottenham have conceded six goals in the opening 15 minutes of matches this season, more than any other club, while Swansea have conceded none in that period.

Opta further point out that Swansea have lost a league-high 16 points from winning positions this season, which suggests Tottenham could come back even if they concede early.

It is interesting to note that Tottenham have turned two half-time losing positions into full-time wins this season - only two other teams have managed that even once.

Recommended Bet
Back Tottenham on Draw No Bet v Swansea at 2.1211/10 (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 35 pts
Returned: 39.06 pts
P/L: +4.06 pts