среда, 3 декабря 2014 г.

Premier League Wednesday Night Tipsheet: Toffees to make light work of Hull

Roberto Martinez should have plenty to smile about against Hull

With three non-televised Premier League fixtures on Wednesday night Mike Norman tries to eke out some value wagers in games that involve three short-price favourites...

Chelsea 1.434/9 v Tottenham 9.617/2; The Draw 5.04/1

Chelsea saw their eight-point advantage over Manchester City reduced to six points at the weekend, and their odds to win the title drift to 1.321/3 from around 1.21/5. Not exactly a crisis, but certainly a little bit of a warning that City are still there after so much talk of the Blues 'running away with it' in the lead-up to last weekend's fixtures.

There wasn't much wrong with Chelsea's performance at Sunderland on Saturday, they simply ran into a determined side who they struggled to break down. They'll have a few more games like that this season for sure.

Tottenham meanwhile produced one of their best performances of the campaign to come from behind and beat Everton 2-1 on Sunday, the hallmark of their win being the high workrate and intensity they demonstrated that enabled them to turn the game in their favour. They'll need a repeat of that for sure - and more - if they are to get anything from Stamford Bridge.

Spurs have a horrendous record at the home of Jose Mourinho's men, failing to win at the Bridge in 27 league and cup attempts spanning almost a quarter of a century. That, and a few other factors - not least Chelsea's quality and current form - suggest a home victory, but odds of 1.434/9 hardly jump off the screen.

Much has been made of Tottenham's slow starts to Premier League games in recent weeks, so having trailed inside 16 minutes in all of their last four outings you can rest assured that Mauricio Pochettino will have worked on this in the last few days, so perhaps we can expect a lot more emphasis on defending from the Spurs team in the early stages against Chelsea.

My thinking here is two-fold, that the Lilywhites might be able to hold out until half-time if they can perform like they did against Everton, but the Blues should have enough about them to win eventually.

And secondly, Chelsea do give the opposition a chance or two at the back, and if the likes of Burnley, Palace, and QPR can score against them then Tottenham have a chance of getting on the scoresheet too. They might just be involved in their sixth consecutive 2-1 scoreline in the league.

Recommended Bets
Back Draw HT/Chelsea FT @ 5.04/1
Back Chelsea 2-1 Correct Score @ 9.617/2

Everton 1.558/15 v Hull 7.613/2; The Draw 4.47/2

It's easy to over complicate matters sometimes and think that Hull have been so poor in recent weeks that they're sure to improve sooner or later. Instead though, it's probably a better strategy simply to have a wager based on the Tigers' awful form. In other words, Everton really do look banker material here.

Roberto Martinez's men may have lost to Tottenham on Sunday but they played their part in a highly entertaining game in which both sides showed a lot of class. A repeat of that performance, which is highly likely given that they were eight games unbeaten prior to their White Hart Lane visit, will see them take another three points from this encounter.

Hull have really struggled of late, not just in terms of results but in front of goal also. Steve Bruce's men have taken just two points from the last 18 available, and in their last three away games they've failed to score a single goal.

Assuming that the Toffees are a strong bet to win then backing them to lead at the interval on the way to victory is worth chancing, so too are the 2-0 and 3-0 scorelines at combined odds of 5.14/1.

Recommended Bet
Back Everton HT/Everton FT @ 2.3611/8
Dutch 2-0 and 3-0 Correct Scores @ 5.14/1

Sunderland 7.413/2 v Man City 1.538/15; The Draw 4.67/2

You sense that Man City enjoy being the hunters rather than the hunted. They are threatening to do exactly as they did last year when winning the title - give the early leaders a decent advantage before going on a great run of results themselves

True, it's only two league wins in succession now so they have some way to go to match the 11 wins and one draw that they achieved in a 12-game run last season, but the signs are definitely there that Manuel Pellegrini's men are clicking into top gear.

A late victory over Bayern Munich in the Champions League will have given the Citizens a huge boost, and they put in a thoroughly professional performance to get the better of highflying Southampton 0-3 on Sunday afternoon.

Sunderland are on a high too following Saturday's 0-0 draw with Chelsea but I have huge doubts as to whether Gus Poyet's men can repeat that excellent performance. The Black Cats really struggle for goals at times, and even though City will be without their captain Vincent Kompany I think they'll do well to break the champions down.

Sergio Aguero is in such fantastic form that he has to be the recommended bet in the First Goalscorer market, while an away win to nil should also go close to returning a profit.

Recommended Bet
Back Man City Win to Nil @ 2.68/5 (Sportsbook)
Back Sergio Aguero First Goalscorer @ 5.04/1

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