Premier League Stats Review: Swansea to pile more misery on dire Hull

Hull have not beaten a top-half team at home in more than a year

Stats expert Andrew Atherley looks back over 2014 to find two good bets in Saturday's Premier League matches...

This has been a year to forget for Hull and, with little sign of improvement, they are a team to oppose again over the holiday period.

The first opportunity comes on Saturday when Hull host Swansea, who in contrast have been on an upward curve for most of 2014. There is a slight weakness in the Swans' away record, but this is one of their best chances of the season and they rate good value at 1.84/5 on the draw no bet.

For Hull, there are weaknesses wherever you look. Their overall record in 2014 is W6 D9 L20 and you have to go back more than 12 months (to December 1 last year) to find the last time they beat a team with any notable form. That was a 3-1 home win over Liverpool - a result arguably influenced by Brendan Rodgers' team selection.

This season Hull's two wins have been against Crystal Palace and QPR - both currently in the bottom five - and last season's four wins after the turn of the year were all against teams that finished in the bottom nine.

One of those victories was against Swansea, 1-0 at home in early April, but the form lines since then indicate Hull will be hard pushed to repeat that result.

The Swans have a W9 D4 L8 record since then, which seems mixed but looks much better when stripped down to results against bottom-half teams. The record in that case is W6 D2 L1, which makes them tough opposition for struggling Hull.

Steve Bruce's team have won only two out of 22 since that victory over Swansea and just one of those was at the KC stadium. Their overall record in that period is W2 D8 L12 and their home record is W1 D3 L5, which leaves them vulnerable against a team as good as Swansea.

That is because Hull's record against top-half teams in that same period is W0 D4 L9 (W0 D1 L5 at home) - in fact, the record is W0 D6 L17 against top-half teams since that last victory in that category against Liverpool (W0 D3 L10 at home).

The weakness in Swansea's away record - and the main doubt over their win chance - is that they are winless on the road since their opening-day 2-1 victory at Manchester United. Garry Monk's side have passed up a couple of decent opportunities, with a goalless draw at Sunderland and a 2-1 defeat at Stoke.

Nevertheless the balance of the form lines is in Swansea's favour and they rate a solid chance with the safety net of the draw no bet.

******

West Ham are one of the most improved teams in 2014 and they continue to offer good value, making them a strong win chance at 1.695/7 at home to Leicester on Saturday.

No Premier League team outside the big six has won more matches in this calendar year than West Ham and their progress has gathered pace this season.

Their only defeats have been against teams that are currently in the top seven or were in that zone last season, and their record outside that category is W6 D4 L0.

Leicester are nowhere near that standard, lying five points from safety and with a terrible away record (W1 D0 L7). As West Ham's home record is W4 D1 L0 against teams outside the top seven, win odds of 1.695/7 appear generous.

Recommended Bets
Back Swansea on Draw No Bet v Hull at 1.84/5 (1pt)
Back West Ham to beat Leicester at 1.695/7 (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 38 pts
Returned: 44.04 pts
P/L: +6.04 pts