Middlesbrough v Derby: Promotion rivals to make their point

Steve McClaren's Derby can earn a draw on his return to the Riverside

Saturday's lunchtime Championship clash sees the leaders travel to Teesside and Andy Tongue says that with the two sides evenly-matched, backing the draw is the way to profit...

Middlesbrough v Derby
Saturday 13 December
12:15
Live on Sky Sports 1

Middlesbrough

Boro produced the most eye-catching performance last Saturday with their 5-1 victory at Millwall, which is never the easiest place to go, even with the home side on a long winless run. The result certainly didn't flatter the visitors with Lions' boss Ian Holloway admitting they could have had six or seven at least.

That win kept Boro just two points off top spot and sets up this game against the leaders very nicely. With all of the top four winning last week for the first time a hint of a gap has opened up with the sides battling below them. Both teams here will be well aware that a good run between now and the end of the year could see that gap develop into something substantial.

Striker Patrick Bamford spent the second-half of last season on loan at Derby and played his part in their run to the play-off final, scoring eight times. He's currently in red-hot form for Boro though, finding the net in five of the last six matches.

Belgian international Jelle Vossen finally showed what he could do with his hat-trick at the Den and Aitor Karanka will have to decide whether to stick with the same XI from last week or give a start to Kike, who scored after coming off the bench at the Den.

Derby

Steve McClaren's outfit were too strong for struggling Brighton last week, racing into a 3-0 half-time lead before understandably easing off the gas after the break with one eye on this clash. The Rams will be well aware that the trip to the Riverside will be a whole different kettle of fish, though. Star striker Chris Martin grabbed a brace in the win to take his total for the season to 14.

Those looking for weaknesses in the Rams will point out that away from home they aren't quite as formidable as in front of their own fans and have lost two of the last three on the road - at Leeds and Brentford.

McClaren has enviable depth to his squad - he was able to make three changes to his side last week, resting midfielders Will Hughes, John Eustace and striker Jamie Ward. All three could return this week as he rotates his starting line-up to take advantage of those options. And skipper Richard Keogh, who missed the win over Brighton, should be fit to return for this clash.

Match Odds

The home side have been priced up as 2.3611/8 favourites by the market with Derby available to back at 3.412/5 - quite a juicy price for a side top of the table. In contrast to their opponents, Boro's home form isn't quite as eye-catching as their away record - they have won four, drawn four and lost twice (Sheffield Wednesday and Reading).

The suspicion is that they are better set-up to counter-attack away from home and can be frustrated at the Riverside by sides happy to try and earn themselves a point - Bournemouth and Blackburn doing just that in their last two in front of their own fans.

As we approach the halfway stage of the season, most observers think that although there isn't an awful lot to separate the sides at the top of the table, Derby's all-round strength and range of attacking threats just gives them an edge over their rivals.

McClaren will expect them to get something from the game here and with a near full-strength squad to select from his men should be capable of doing that. A draw would be seen as a decent recent by Karanka too, who said this week he thinks the visitors are the best team in the league.

In a division where there's been plenty of draws so far this season I think we're in for another one here, paying out a nice 3.55/2 for backers, with both sides in great nick and full of confidence.

Correct Score

As we've repeatedly highlighted in these previews, goals have been at a premium in the Championship lunch-time kick-offs - 10 of the 12 games this season have gone under the 2.5 line.

Although both sides have plenty of attacking talent, I can't see this game being a goal-fest either. Derby have scored 38 times this season (a figure bettered only by Bournemouth who got eight in one game) and you would expect them to find the net here but I think that once could be it - Boro are very solid at the back, boasting the best defensive record in the division.

The 1-1 scoreline can be backed at 7.413/2 and I want to keep that onside as it certainly appears the most likely outcome here and one which would leave all parties to head home pretty satisfied on what is forecast to be a bitterly-cold December day.

Recommended Bets
Back the draw at 3.55/2
Back the 1-1 correct score at 7.413/2

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 68 pts
Returned: 72.74 pts
P/L: + 4.26 pts

*2pts best bet if stated
1pt other recommended bets