Man City: Aguero absence necessitates a Dzeko revival

Edin Dzeko hasn't scored for Man City since September

The only way that Man City will cope without Sergio Aguero is if Edin Dzeko rediscovers his scoring touch...

Injury proneness has been a recurring theme of Sergio Aguero's three-and-a-half years at Man City, making it all the more disappointing that, after a rare four months without a setback, he has been dealt a serious one to redress the balance.

The knee ligament damage that Aguero suffered early in the champions' 1-0 victory over Everton is expected to rule him out for at least a month and potentially longer, and that is almost as terrifying a prospect for his employers as it is for the player himself.

There have been six Man City matches that the Argentine international has either missed entirely or only appeared as a substitute in this season and they lost an alarming three of those. Kun played no part in the 0-3 Community Shield defeat to Arsenal and a combined 36 minutes in the cup reverses to Bayern Munich and Newcastle. By contrast, they have lost three of the 17 games that he started.

Encouragingly, the difference in Man City's attainment with and without Aguero wasn't anywhere near as stark last term. They won 22, drew two and lost six of the 30 that he started whilst winning 18, drawing five and being beaten four times in the 27 that he didn't. Their conquerors included Chelsea, Barcelona and Liverpool, three sides who they would have struggled against with Aguero.

So while their triumph ratio was a shade lower without him (67% compared to 73%), they lost less (15% as opposed to 20%), which averaged out to a 2.27 point-per-game rate when he was in the XI and 2.19 when he wasn't.

However, the two hot streaks that Manuel Pellegrini's men embarked on without Aguero in 2013/14 were made possible by other forwards stepping up to assume goalscoring responsibility.

During a ten-fixture sequence last Christmas in which Man City earned nine wins and a draw without their talisman, Edin Dzeko netted nine times and Alvaro Negredo chimed in with nine in the closing eight. When they obtained 13 points from a possible 15 in late March and early April, they were carried along by four Dzeko strikes and five from Yaya Toure.

The lesson therefore is that they can thrive without Aguero, but only if his teammates are in form. With Dzeko going nine club outings without scoring and injury-doubt Stevan Jovetic notching just twice in 12 appearances - and never in the Champions League for the Citizens - that can't be guaranteed.

Toure is the one Man City representative besides Aguero who has been pretty prolific recently, firing four times in six matches, yet he is unavailable for the upcoming Champions League decider away to Roma - which the Premier League club are 3.02/1 to win - due to suspension.

Aguero is now 2.747/4 to be Premier League top scorer, with Diego Costa the 2.1211/10 frontrunner. The Argentine has a three-goal lead (and is five clear of next contender Alexis Sanchez) and the Chelsea striker has cooled off lately, going three games without a goal in all competitions.