Yeovil Town boss Gary Johnson
Alan Dudman returns to preview three matches in League One this Saturday, and is hoping that Yeovil can pick up the victory in a relegation six-pointer....
Yeovil Town 2.0621/20 v Colchester United 3.8514/5, the draw 3.65n/a
Both these teams have been fire-fighting at the foot of the table for the whole season. Colchester are in dreadful nick, losing five successive games on the spin to consolidate their position in 23rd, whilst Yeovil keep threatening to break free from the drop zone, but their inconsistency is costing them dearly.
The very fact I mentioned the Glovers 'are threatening' to move away from the bottom means they are interesting at 2.0621/20 here. I am not swayed too much by their seemingly fluke 4-0 win at Oldham last weekend. I never saw that coming as the Latics have carved open some decent teams on their own patch this term, but finally Yeovil's 'high press' worked, their game plan came off, and now they need to back it up.
But we are going against some fairly damning Opta Stats here; Gary Johnson's side haven't won a league home game since September, whilst they have failed to score in four of their last five at Huish Park. Mind you, it doesn't get any better for Colchester, as according to Opta, they have won none of their last four visits to the west country.
Johnson used a couple of new wide men in Yeovil's stunning victory at Oldham, and they got their goals through pressure, and one gets the feeling that the young and inexperienced Essex side could fall apart if conceding.
Colchester's manager Tony Humes will do well to survive in the job past Christmas. Humes said after the 4-1 hammering at home to Rochdale on Saturday that the performance was unacceptable and he's hinted at changes. The problem is, United have a thin squad woefully short on old heads and experience. They were really poor last weekend, and they've now conceded 10 goals from their last two matches having lost 6-0 to the MK Dons. They are odds-on in the relegation market on the Sportsbook.
You wouldn't want to back either side on form this season, but this is the sort of match Yeovil can win and will view as a possible three points.
Recommended Bet
Back Yeovil to win @ 2.0621/20
Gillingham 3.45n/a v Chesterfield 2.245/4, the draw 3.505/2
I mentioned Chesterfield a few weeks ago, as to how they are decent at soaking up pressure defensively against better teams. Of course I ignored that advice as I thought the MK Dons would have been too strong for Paul Cook's team, but the Spirerites came away with a superb FA Cup 0-1 win in Buckinghamshire. That match will have to be replayed due to an administrative error, unfortunately we can't get our money back for the bet.
Anyway, the defensive solidity for Chesterfield is the basis for a few angles here.
Firstly, Gillingham have been using a 3-5-2 with fairly aggressive wing-backs. These tactics have brought about a few more goals for Peter Taylor's side, and some better results. Their overall form has improved with a sequence of WDDWL, but they are still drawing too many games at home (four from their last six).
Saturday's 2-1 success at Doncaster was Gillingham's first away victory of the season, but Donny are the worst home side in England at the moment. Taylor's side have a few more options up front - with Luke Norris in-form, whilst Opta Stats highlight Jake Hessenthaler's recent influence, as he has recorded seven assists in League One - a joint-high with Stephen McLaughlin of Notts County.
If you are backing Chesterfield, you would want them in better form. Opta point out that they have collected just seven points from their last 10 league matches, a league-low tally of W1 D4 L5.
However, I'm hoping the visitors will build on what has been a better defensive record over the past 10 weeks. From October to December, they kept two clean sheets in nine games, but only conceded one in each of five matches. Whilst under 2.5 goals backers have collected on six occasions from their last nine.
I was encouraged by Chesterfield's performance last Saturday, as for long spells they looked the better team against Bradford - only to lose 0-1. And of course goal machine Eoin Doyle is leading the way in League One with 16, and he might make the difference in what could potentially be a low-scoring affair.
Recommended Bet
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.981/1
Bradford City 1.804/5 v Scunthorpe United 5.04/1, the draw 4.03/1
I'm not entirely convinced that any mid-table side (such as Bradford) deserve to be trading at 1.804/5 in a league where consistency and stringing together results is a big problem.
However, the Bantams are in a flying run of five wins from six games, which prompts such a short price. Their 1-0 success against Chesterfield last weekend was mentioned above, and they were outplayed for a fair part of that game, but a magical Billy Clarke strike sealed the points for Phil Parkinson's team - maybe undeserved?
My gut instinct here was to take the hosts on at that price. Of course I am worried about that run, but Scunthorpe are an improving team that score away from home and do not deserve to be as big as 5.04/1.
I mentioned how the Iron have improved, and their league form has been excellent; with three wins from five since October (drawing the other two), and scoring 11 goals in five outings on their travels. However, at the other end Opta point out they have frailties, as they have kept only one clean sheet all season - but they do score.
Last weekend they were outplayed by Crewe and yet won 2-1, and they performed superbly for 75 minutes at Crawley only to pick up a point. They strike me as a side that won't hurt you in possession, but will with the amount of chances they create and take. The recent away run highlighted saw them pick up wins against Peterborough and Barnsley.
I'm slightly worried about tiredness creeping in, as Iron boss Mark Robins mentioned the word 'jaded' recently. A humdinger of an FA Cup tie on Wednesday with a mammoth penalty shoot-out wouldn't have helped that either. However, it's a side that score and their last seven away matches have all hit over 2.5 goals.
Therefore the Bradford clean sheet comes in to play, and also bookings, as according to Opta, Scunthorpe have received more yellow cards than any other team (44).
Recommended Bet
Lay Bradford to win @ 1.804/5
League One 2014/15 P/L (all selections one point)
- 10.63pts
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