La Liga Betting: Messi and Neymar can silence the Mestalla

Luis Suarez is desperate to join the party he can see going on next door

While Ronaldo and Benzema can get Real Madrid off to another fast start on Saturday, Barcelona have an awesome twosome of their own and Tobias Gourlay reckons Messi and Neymar will hurt Valencia on Sunday night

Real Sociedad v Elche
Friday 19:45 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Sociedad 1.768/11 Elche 5.69/2 draw 3.9n/a

David Moyes' first home game in charge of Real Sociedad brings La Liga's worst defence to Anoeta.

For the first 12 rounds of the season, Elche have conceded at a rate of exactly two goals a game (15 in six on the road). A goalless draw at Getafe earlier this month was their first away game in six to not deliver Over 2.5 Goals.

Since their promotion a couple of years ago, 18/25 Elche away games have gone that way. In the same period, 15/25 at Anoeta have produced at least three goals.

Before Moyes, Sociedad conceded in each of their first six home matches of the season. The good form of Jonathas will give the visitors hope of an upset and raises our interest in the goals market. The Brazilian has scored five times in his last five Liga appearances.

Moyes is new, so the stake is small.

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.166/5

Malaga v Real Madrid
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Malaga 10.5n/a Real 1.341/3 draw 6.05/1

Real Madrid have won this fixture only twice in the last five campaigns: 1-0 last season and 7-0 in 2010/11.

Malaga are unbeaten at La Rosaleda this season (W4-D2-L0), conceding just twice along the way. Since holding Barcelona to a goalless draw there, they've won three in a row against teams in the bottom half.

But Carlo Ancelotti's men are in record-setting form this time around: Ronaldo's scored in 11 straight Liga appearances; Benzema in five straight; and the team's La Liga winning streak is nine.

Javi Gracia's team were two goals down by half-time at Atletico Madrid last week and, Opta reports, a league-high 67% of all the goals they've let in this season (8/12) have arrived before the break.

There have been at least two first-half goals in each of Real's last 11 Liga games, a vast majority for Real themselves (22/28), and the odds-against price on another couple or more this weekend is appealing.

Home and away in La Liga, Malaga have been losing at half-time in 6/12, while Real have been leading at the break in eight of their nine consecutive wins. The Real / Real double result is also generously priced this weekend.

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Over 1.5 First Half Goals @ 2.166/5
0.5pts - Back Real Madrid / Real Madrid @ 1.9520/21

Celta Vigo v Eibar
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Celta 1.664/6 Eibar 6.411/2 draw 4.1n/a

Celta Vigo's unhealthy reliance on Joaquin Larrivey and Nolito has been revealed in recent games. Opta's calculated that the pair have scored more than 70% of Celta's goals this season.

The forwards have just a single goal between them from Celta's three games in November, however. The rest of the team have not stepped up and, since winning 1-0 in the Camp Nou, Celta have drawn 0-0 at home to Granada and lost 0-1 at Rayo Vallecano. We can't trust Eduardo Berizzo's men to get Saturday's job done at 1.664/6. 

Take out a trio of defeats to the top three (Real, Barca, Atletico) and Eibar are W3-D4-L2 in their first ever top-flight campaign (W2-D1-L1 on the road).

Gaizka Garitano's lot have been conceding just a little too regularly (twice in each of their last two away games) for this to be a big bet, but we'll give them a bit of support on the Asian Handicap.

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Eibar +1.0 on the Asian Handicap @ 1.855/6

Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna
Sunday 11:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Atletico 1.192/11 Deportivo 23.022/1 draw 8.07/1

Atletico Madrid have won this fixture eight times in a row. Since the start of last season Diego Simeone's team are W20-D5-L0 at the Vicente Calderon.

Three of Deportivo La Coruna's last four games have finished 0-0 and that might be the best Victor Fernandez can hope for this weekend. Depor have already lost quickly at Sevilla and Celta Vigo, who are running behind Atletico in fifth and seventh. 

Gabi is suspended for the champions, but they have been ahead at the break in 6/6 home games so far this season. 1.674/6 is the price on an Atletico / Atletico double result.

Atletico have also scored at least twice in each of those six previous outings at the Vicente Calderon. In total they've scored 23 times in winning seven straight Liga and Champions League home games. 

Recommended Bet
Back Atletico Madrid -1.75 on the Asian Handicap @ 1.855/6

Cordoba v Villarreal
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Cordoba 4.77/2 Villarreal 1.910/11 draw 3.711/4

Villarreal have lost four times this season - against the teams now running 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th in La Liga.

Cordoba are rock bottom and winless all season. They have drawn 3/4 under new boss Miroslav Djukic, but those three opponents are all to be found alongside them in the bottom six.

At an odds-on price, our concern with the away win is that the Yellow Submarine has already been held to away draws by three sides now in the bottom half of the table.

And the hosts might very well score at least once on Sunday evening. Home and away, they've hit the back of the net in 5/6 and 8/11 have seen goals at both ends.

Both teams have also scored in 7/9 Villarreal games, including each of their last four on the road.

Just check on Fede Cartabia's fitness before wading in. The Argentine attacking midfielder, on loan from Valencia, has scored three and assisted three of Cordoba's 10 goals this term.

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Yes in Both Teams to Score? @ 2.166/5

Valencia v Barcelona
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Valencia 6.25/1 Barcelona 1.594/7 draw 4.57/2

After 12 rounds, fourth-placed Valencia are four points behind Barcelona. That's closer than many would've predicted at the start of the season.

Nuno Santo has guided them to a W5-D1-L0 home record that has seen them score three times in all five of those victories. A goalless draw with Athletic Bilbao last time out is the aberration. 

Barcelona are unbeaten in this fixture for seven seasons, however (W3-D4-L0). The visitors also have a resurgent Lionel Messi to lead their charge. Last weekend he scored a hat trick to take the all-time La Liga scoring record. In midweek he scored a hat trick to take the all-time Champions League scoring record. And what did he do in this fixture last season?

A hat trick, of course. Barca's main man has scored in eight of his last 11 club appearances and will rate a bet at 1.910/11 or more to hit the back of the net on Sunday.

You might also consider adding Neymar to your portfolio: the Brazilian has struck at least once in 8/10 club appearances and will be longer than evens to score at the Mestalla.

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Lionel Messi To Score @ 1.910/11
0.5pts - Back Neymar To Score @ 2.111/10

2014/15 La Liga P/L

Staked: 41pts
Returned: 37.05pts

P/L: -3.95pts

2013/14 P/L: +18.77pts (11.55% ROI)