Football Bet of the Day: Hosts don't have qualification in the Qarabag

Inter's Roberto Mancini needs wins, and he might get one tonight

Kevin Hatchard's on the hunt for a third straight winner, and he thinks Qarabag may crumble under the pressure of trying to make Azerbaijani football history.

Qarabag v Inter Milan
Thursday December 11, 17:00

It's nice when a game plays out the way you anticipated, and that's what happened in Amsterdam last night, as Ajax swept aside APOEL 4-0 to comfortably cover our Asian Handicap bet. A Lasse Schone penalty broke the Cypriot resistance on the stroke of half-time, and after the break Ajax ran riot to book their place in the Europa League.

We're heading to the Europa League too, as we examine tonight's clash between Azerbaijan's Qarabag and Inter Milan. Qarabag could become the first Azerbaijani side to qualify for the knockout phase of a European competition, but they will need to win if there is a positive result in the other group game between Dnipro and St Etienne.

There is massive pressure on Qarabag, and their captain Rashad Sadygov gave a rather revealing interview before the game. He stated that he and his players have a huge responsibility, and are desperate not to let the country down. Sadygov - who has 94 caps and is Azerbaijan's captain - has also played down the importance of Inter fielding a weakened side, as he feels players keen to catch the manager's eye are always a bit more aggressive.

Not only are Qarabag in uncharted waters in terms of pressure, but they face arguably the biggest game in their history without key players. Brazilian duo Chumbinho and Danilo Dias are out, while Reynaldo is struggling with a knee injury. 

Inter are in poor form at the moment in Serie A (they have claimed just two points from their last five matches), and new boss Roberto Mancini won't field anywhere near his strongest side. Andrea Ranocchia is suspended, while Hugo Campagnaro, Dani Osvaldo, Yuto Nagatomo and Danilo D'Ambrosio are all injured.

Qarabag are 2.3611/8 favourites to win, but it's worth noting they have won just one of their five group games so far, and they are up against an Inter side that has cantered through the group stage (including a 2-0 win in the reverse fixture). If a goal goes in early on in the other game in Ukraine, that will ramp up the pressure even further on Qarabag, and they may lose their shape. 

Even a weakened Inter side will be at least a match for Qarabag in terms of quality, so it then becomes about motivation. Inter have nothing to play for per se, but Mancini needs positive results to breed confidence and give him some breathing space, and there'll be players keen to convince him they should be part of the first team picture.

I just think Inter are way too big at 3.55n/a, so let's take advantage of that and back the visitors Draw No Bet at 2.427/5, which returns our stake in the event of a draw.

Recommended Bet

Back Inter Milan Draw No Bet at 2.427/5

2014 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 66

Points Returned: 60.29

P/L: -5.71 points