Football Bet of the Day: Deposed champions to show no mercy

After missing out on the title, can Emelec bounce back?

It's been a good week's tipping for Kevin Hatchard, and he's hoping to net his fifth winner with a wager from Ecuador.

Emelec v Olmedo
Sunday December 14, 17:00

Alex McLeish did the business for us last night, but perhaps not quite in the way we expected. His Genk side threw off their shackles for once as they beat high-flying Kortrijk in the Belgian Pro League by three goals to nil. That was enough to land our Both Teams To Score bet, as we had uttered a resounding "No".

So then, four winners in the bag this week, and we look to finish on a high with our first trip of the week to South America. We're in Ecuador for Emelec's Primera A clash with struggling Olmedo.

Emelec suffered a 2-1 reverse at Deportivo Cuenca last time out, a result that put paid to their hopes of winning the second-stage title. Their arch-rivals Barcelona are now four points ahead with just one round of matches remaining. Despite that disappointment, Emelec can still finish second if they beat rock-bottom Olmedo and Independiente del Valle slip up.

Emelec have built their season on a strong home record - they have won eight of their ten fixtures in front of their own fans in Guayaquil, rattling in 22 goals and conceding just six. Today's opponents Olmedo will finish bottom of the pile unless they beat Emelec and 11th-placed Deportivo Quito lose at Rushuc Muna.

There's little reason to believe Olmedo will spring a surprise in this one. They've won just three games all season, collected just six points away from home, and they have the joint-worst defence in the division.

Emelec will have been stung by their catastrophic failure at Deportivo Cuenca, but in a way the pressure is now off them, and Olmedo could be on the wrong end of a backlash. I think 1.618/13 is quite generous for the outright home win, but given that Olmedo have suffered five away defeats this term that have been by more than a one-goal margin, I'm happy to boost the odds to 2.021/1 by using the Asian Handicap.

Recommended Bet
Back Emelec -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.021/1

2014 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 69

Points Returned: 65.51

P/L: -3.49 points