Brighton v Millwall: Lay Seagulls in seaside six-pointer

Ian Holloway can inspire his men to get something from their trip to the south coast

Two struggling Championship sides meet in a televised bottom-of-the-table clash on Friday night and Andy Tongue says that the hosts are too short and have to be opposed...

Brighton v Millwall
Friday 12 December
19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Brighton

The Seagulls' boss Sammi Hyypia is now favourite to be the next Championship manager to lose his job, following a terrible run of form which has seen his team win just one of their last 16 games. Of their three league wins this season, two came back in August which seems a long time ago now.

Having reached the play-offs for the past two seasons, Albion fans would have expected their side to be challenging at the right end of the table again. But with key players having left over the summer and Hyypia struggling with his first taste of management in England the team is now facing up to a relegation battle this time around.

The midfield was once again overrun in Saturday's 3-0 defeat at leaders Derby where the game was over by half-time as the home side scored all of their goals inside the first 20 minutes. Inexperienced pair Jake Forster-Caskey and Gary Gardner desperately need a battle-hardened old head in there to lead by example.

Skipper Gordon Greer will still be absent which leaves a big hole at the heart of the home defence, while striker Sam Baldock is unlikely to be fit again either.

Millwall

Ian Holloway described the 5-1 defeat at home to Middlesbrough last week as the 'worst of his career'. He has lost the support of many of the Lions' faithful through his constant tinkering and changing with the team's line-up and defensively his side have been a mess for much of the season, conceding 15 goals in their last six games (and one of those was a rare clean sheet against local rivals Charlton).

The former Blackpool and Crystal Palace boss is something of a 'marmite' manager but is out of flavour in much of South London for his switching between his preferred 3-5-2 formation and the more traditional 4-4-2, which probably suits the make-up of his squad better.

Away from home Millwall have won just once this season - at Fulham in the second week of the season when the Cottagers were all over the shop under Felix Magath - and with one win in their last 15 games, Holloway needs to stop the rot very quickly or he could be out of the job by the end of the year.

Man mountain Danny Shittu came on at the interval against Middlesbrough and tightened things up in an improved second-half performance. He looks certain to start here, tasked with the job of holding things together at the heart of the visitors' defence.

Match Odds

With the two sides bottom of the current Championship form table meeting you might have expected them to be priced up fairly evenly. However, Brighton are just a shade over evens in the match odds market at 2.021/1, having been odds-on earlier this week. Admittedly Millwall's away form is pretty ropey but the home side still have to be too short for an outfit with just one win since August.

He may not be the most tactically astute manager but Holloway can certainly motivate his sides for big one-off games. Following the embarrassment of being thumped in front of their own fans last week, there has to be a reaction from Millwall in what can be justifiably be termed a six-pointer - even at this stage of the season.

Holloway will have fond memories of the Amex Stadium, having masterminded a win here for Albion's bitter rivals Crystal Palace in the play-off semi-finals two seasons ago and I expect the Lions to put on a decent show in front of the cameras. That makes laying their hosts the recommended bet here.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Millwall have scored a few goals in recent weeks - their problems have mainly been at the other end and five of their six games have featured at least three goals.

The home side have also conceded eight in their last three games, which suggests they have problems at the back too and captain Greer is likely to be missing from the centre of their defence again here. They do have Darren Bent on loan from Aston Villa and the former England striker, who scored against Fulham in the last game at the Amex, should be a real goal threat at this level.

These Friday night televised games have been pretty lively lately with the last six going over the 2.5 line in comparison to the goal-starved Saturday lunchtime affairs. The atmosphere under lights and the post-work crowds seem to be inspiring some attacking football and exciting games so I also like the look of over 2.5 goals at 2.186/5 here.

Recommended Bets
Lay Brighton at 2.021/1
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.186/5

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 68 pts
Returned: 72.74 pts
P/L: + 4.26 pts

*2pts best bet if stated
1pt other recommended bets