Arsenal v Newcastle: Gunners and Magpies to provide few goals

Wenger still has the backing of the Arsenal board, but for how long?

Arsenal and Newcastle meet this Saturday evening locked on 23 points apiece in the Premier League table, Jaymes Monte previews the game and picks out his best bets...

Arsenal v Newcastle
Saturday December 13, 2014
Live on Sky Sports 1

Arsenal

As impressive as Arsenal looked in their midweek Champions League demolition of Galatasaray we shouldn't lose sight of the fact it was essentially a dead rubber game. And winning the 'easy' games has rarely been a problem for the Gunners in recent years. The pressure is mounting on Arsene Wenger with every passing week and although he seems to still have the support of the boardroom, the tipping point can't be far away.

In the Premier League Arsenal have lost three of their last five, and haven't won a game by more than a single goal since the first day of November when they beat Burnley 3-0. 23 points is the second worst tally of points under Wenger after 15 games (in 2012-13 they had 21).

On the plus side, Danny Wellbeck is continuing to find the back of the net regularly and now has six goals for the season, Aaron Ramsey now has three in his last two and his wonder goal in Turkey will lift his confidence further (though he is missing on Saturday due to injury), while 14-goal Alexis Sanchez was able to get some rest in midweek and can come back into the side fighting fit this Saturday.

Calum Chambers won't be available, however, as he serves a one-match ban for the red card he received against Stoke, further adding to Wenger's defensive woes.

Newcastle

Newcastle, meanwhile, continue to go from strength to strength. Last weekend's win, which ended Chelsea's unbeaten start to the campaign, was the Geordies' seventh win in nine games and means that they have now lost only two of their last 13. Suffice to say that the number of daily hits on www.sackpardew.com have tumbled dramatically since October.

Papiss Cissse's brace on Saturday took his tally for the season to seven goals and made it three in his last two starts for the Senegalese forward. However, there remain concerns about the player's knee problems and Alan Pardew has reiterated this week that they will have to protect their top goalscorer throughout the hectic festive schedule - this weekend's game is the first of a run of seven matches in 22 days for the Magpies.

And personnel, or lack thereof, is becoming an increasing problem on Tyneside. Goalkeeper Rob Elliot picked up a thigh injury during the win over Chelsea meaning that third-choice, 21-year-old Jak Alnwick will be required to deputise, while Fabricio Coloccini and Mehdi Abeid are doubtful this weekend and both Steven Taylor and Moussa Sissoko are suspended joining the likes of Siem de Jong, Davide Santon, Tim Krul and Rolando Aarons on the sidelines.

Match Odds

Both sides have significant injury concerns, but the hosts are much better equipped to deal with them. Whether you want to be backing this Arsenal side at odds of 1.51/2 with any particular fervor is a different matter, however.

After last weekend's win against Chelsea the 8.07/1 available on a Newcastle win does admittedly carry some appeal, but it's really a market where we should show some discipline and either keep stakes small or avoid altogether.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Newcastle have managed just seven goals in eight Premier League away games this season, while Arsenal have failed to score more than once in four of their last five Premier League games at any venue. And with both sides also being reasonably solid defensively, odds of 2.35/4 on there being fewer than 2.5 goals in the game looks a standout bet.

Half Time Score

Our Opta stats for this game tell us that Arsenal haven't scored a first-half goal in any of their last six Premier League matches, and that Newcastle are yet to score a goal before the 37th minute of a game this season. Therefore, the 0-0 in the Half Time Score market at odds of 3.412/5 looks to be another good value play.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.35/4
1pt Back 0-0  Half Time Score @ 3.412/5

Jaymes Monte 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 35.0 pts
Returned: 36.88 pts
P/L: +1.88 pts

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