Southampton v Swansea: South Coast side to serve up another shutout win

Joe fancies Fraser Forster to record clean sheet no.11

Swansea must tackle one of the Premier League's toughest away days without the departed Wilfried Bony and missing the suspended Gylfi Sigurdsson and the Welsh side's lack of goal threat should result in another win for Southampton, says Joe Dyer

Southampton v Swansea
Sunday February 1, KO 16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Southampton

An eight-game unbeaten run in all competitions was brought to an unexpected end by Alan Pardew's Crystal Palace in the FA Cup last weekend but Saints remain in rude health. Third in the table, the south coast side have won all three Premier League games played this month beating Arsenal, Manchester United and Newcastle, the latter two results coming away from St Mary's. Ronald Koeman's outfit boast the league's third best home record where they are miserly in defence and very effective upfront with 24 goals scored and just seven conceded. 

Southampton are missing three key players for this clash in the shape of defender Toby Alderweireld and midfielders Morgan Schneiderlin and Vincent Wanyama. 

Swansea

Five points behind Liverpool, the mid-table Swans head the chasing pack behind the eight teams with genuine hopes of making Europe but you feel this is as good as it's going to get for Garry Monk's men. No long-term rot has set in but the Welsh side have begun to slide in the league (no win in four top-flight games) and the sale of lethal frontman Wilfried Bony can't have done team spirit much good. 

To make matters worse, four goal, eight assist midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson is suspended for Sunday's game. 

Match Odds 

Betfair's backers and layers are very keen on Southampton, making them the third shortest team in the Premier League Match Odds markets this weekend after Arsenal and Manchester United. They are short at 1.635/8 to back but that's inevitable when you combine a home record as good as Southampton's with an away record as bad as Swansea's and with form so clearly favouring Saints. 

Swansea are 7.06/1 to record an unlikely victory while the draw trades at 4.1n/a. 

I can't put up 1.635/8 shots in this column but I think there are other ways of profiting from a home win. 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals 

A low goals total is firm favourite in this market at 1.814/5. Again, it's understandable - Saints have conceded just seven league goals at St Mary's, have recorded a mighty 10 clean sheets in 22 top-flight matches so far (including a 0-1 win at Swansea in September) and three in their last six with Manchester United, Arsenal and Everton all blanked. An Opta stat further underlines the strong chance of this match finishing Unders - there have been just six goals scored in five Premier League meetings between the two. 

After giving up three goals against Crystal Palace last weekend I expect a reaction from the home defence and they should be on their best form.  

Sidemarket Selection(s) - Match Odds/Under 2.5 Goals Double

For this to cop Southampton have to keep a clean sheet and score just one or two goals. You can back it at 3.185/40 on the Sportsbook, odds that are almost exactly the same as Dutching those scores on the Exchange. Six of Southampton's 13 Premier League wins have been by one or two goals without conceding and a Swansea team shorn of its top scorer (Bony) and missing its second highest scorer (Sigurdsson) should struggle to get on the scoresheet against a well-drilled home side. 

Alternatively, the home clean sheet trades at 2.111/10.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Southampton/Under 2.5 Goals Double @ 3.185/40