ATP Rio Open 2015 Betting: Side with Mayer rather than rusty Rafa in Rio

Leonardo Mayer can go far in Rio this week

The ATP World Tour offers tournaments in Brazil, France and the United States this week and tennis expert Sean Calvert has unearthed a couple of big-priced bets for week seven...

The 2015 season has been a testing one so far, with two big priced semi finalists and an 11.010/1 finalist in the last three weeks on the tour.

Tomas Berdych was my losing semi finalist in Melbourne and it was Berdych who downed last week's 46.045/1 shot of Gilles Simon in the last four in Rotterdam.

In-between times Andreas Seppi lost in the Zagreb final to an opponent he'd previously beaten five times from five, which has added to the frustration of the campaign so far.

At least all three made for good trades, with Simon being matched at around the 7.26/1 mark from the original 46.045/1, but Ernests Gulbis was a round one casualty in Rotterdam.

Week seven sees the continuation of the Golden Swing on the clay with the Rio Open in Brazil, while there's more indoor hard court tennis in Europe with the Open 13 in Marseille, and outdoor hard court action in Delray Beach.

The ATP 500 Rio Open was just about won by Rafa Nadal last year in its inaugural tournament and Rafa is back to defend his title after a slow start to his 2015 season so far.

Held at the Jockey Club Brasileiro conditions are expected to be very hot and humid all week in Rio and this joint ATP/WTA tournament will take some winning if the forecast is correct.

I think it's worth taking Nadal on this week, not only because of the lack of form we've seen from him this year and rumours that he's been unwell, but also his draw in the top half is tough.

The mercurial Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci is Rafa's first opponent and the Spaniard has lost his last three matches against lefties - and hardly celebrated ones in Michael Berrer, Feli Lopez and Martin Klizan and if Bellucci catches fire he could catch Rafa cold.

Klizan himself is also a possible opponent for Nadal in that top half, as are Nico Almagro, Pablo Cuevas, Fabio Fognini, Federico Delbonis and Pablo Andujar, who should have beaten Nadal here a year ago.

That top half of the draw should test Nadal at the very least and perhaps those in the bottom half could be the ones to profit, with Leo Mayer and David Ferrer the obvious choices in that section.

The bottom half looks much weaker, with Santi Giraldo and Tommy Robredo possibles, but Mayer should like his draw, with a chance for swift revenge over Joao Souza who used the energy of the Sao Paulo crowd to beat the Argentine last week.

Robredo's recent record on clay is poor and Giraldo doesn't look in the best of form so far in 2015 and was outplayed by Cuevas in Sao Paulo last week.

Ferrer looks to me like he only has Mayer to beat to make the final, but the Argentine did beat the Spaniard last time they met, which was on clay in Hamburg last summer and with Ferrer at 4.03/1 and Mayer at 29.028/1 it's no contest as a betting proposition.

Mayer has the power to match anyone on his day and is ideally suited to the slightly slower conditions in Rio rather than the altitude of Sao Paulo, as he showed by winning in Hamburg last year.

I also might have a look at Pablo Andujar, who played some great stuff here last year and would be a very big priced option at 75.074/1.

In Marseille they play in quick conditions on a Gerflor surface with Tecnifibre balls, so it should be faster than we saw in Rotterdam and in the last five years it's been won by Michael Llodra, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gulbis amongst others.

There could be some value in picking one from the bottom half, with last week's flop Gulbis in that section and defending his title here this week.

Ernie was dire in a round one loss to his pal Dominic Thiem in Rotterdam and that half of the draw could be one for a lively outsider, with the number two seed Stan Wawrinka unlikely to make back-to-back finals.

Wawrinka has only once in his career made finals in consecutive weeks and after a tough tournament in Rotterdam I'd be questioning the Swiss's desire in this ATP 250 event.

Instead, I like the 65.064/1 about Sergiy Stakhovsky in these lively conditions, with the Ukrainian showing some good form last week in Rotterdam and he should be even more effective here where it's quicker.

It should be too quick for Gilles Simon here and at 100.099/1 I might have a nibble on Paul-Henri Mathieu, who has been playing at a high level in the last fortnight, but in typical manner he's choked at the last.

PHM should have beaten Philipp Kohlschreiber and Grigor Dimitrov in his last two matches and he was a little unlucky to get a bad call at the vital time against Dimitrov.

The attacking tennis he's been playing should suit these conditions at home in France and we might get a decent run for our money at a big price with him.

The top half of the draw looks jam packed with possibilities, including Milos Raonic, Jerzy Janowicz, Vasek Pospisil, and Gael Monfils, but I prefer the bottom half for value in Marseille.

The Delray Beach Open in Florida is played on a medium to slow Plexipave surface and it does get windy here and slower in the night matches.

Kevin Anderson is top seed here and the South African has a great record in Delray Beach of 13-4, but he's currently still playing in Memphis so it could pay to look for a less fatigued contender there.

It's not a market I particularly like, with no single contender really standing out for me in what looks a wide-open contest.

Recommended Bets (back to lay)

Back Mayer to win Rio at 29.028/1
Back Stakhovsky to win Marseille at 65.064/1