Hull v Newcastle: Boardroom complacency could quickly backfire on Magpies

Carver's appointment suggests that Mike Ashley and co. believe Newcastle are already safe

Neither team score many goals and both are enduring dire runs of form, Jaymes Monte isn't anticipating much to get excited about in this weekend's Saturday lunchtime kick-off...

Hull v Newcastle
Saturday 31st January, 12:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Hull

Just two wins in 15 Premier League matches has seen Hull tumble into the relegation zone and manager Steve Bruce come under increasing pressure at the KC Stadium. And an injury-ravaged squad makes the task to turn things around all the more problematic.

Robert Snodgrass, Liam Rosenior, Andrew Robertson, Nikica Jelavic, Abel Hernandez, Mohamed Diame, James Chester and Alex Bruce are all clogging up the treatment room, but Robert Brady is expected to return after missing the game against West Ham due to illness and Gaston Ramirez could also be available for the first time since New Year's Day.

Problems quite clearly stem from a lack of goals with The Tigers failing to score in 10 of their last 14 Premier League matches, and only Aston Villa (11) and Sunderland (19) having scored fewer league goals this season.

Newcastle

The decision to announce that John Carver - after a draw and three defeats - will remain in charge for the remainder of this season quite clearly stems from a belief that, with 27 points on the board, Newcastle have already done enough to avoid relegation. But defeat here would certainly set the alarm bells ringing - if they aren't already - amongst the supporters.

The recent run of results under Carver coupled with those before Alan Pardew's departure make it just one win and seven defeats in Newcastle's last nine league and cup games, while The Magpies have managed to score just once in their last four fixtures away from St James' Park.

The defensive record doesn't make for much better reading, with two or more goals conceded in each of their last five league matches. And Paul Dummett's injury sustained against Southampton, adding to that of fellow defender Steven Taylor and the absence of defensive midfielder Cheick Tiote (Africa Cup of Nations) only serves to add to the problem.

The pressure on Carver will grow exponentially with every game that passes before he achieves his first win as manager.

Match Odds

Newcastle do have a slight buffer between themselves and those that would currently be considered to be in a relegation scrap, but losing can become a difficult habit to break and after three consecutive losses, plus a draw that will have felt like a defeat after thrice being pegged back against Burnley, the Geordies are amid a run of form akin to those fighting for their Premier League status.

Which is why they go into this Saturday's game as deserved outsiders in the betting and odds of 3.02/1 to pick up all three points.

But can we be confident that this injury-ravaged Hull side, who have won only two of 12 Premier League home games this season, will be able to take advantage? They won't be carrying any of my money, that's for sure.

If I was forced to place a bet on this market then it would be on The Draw at odds of 3.39/4, but my advice is to look elsewhere.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Unsurprisingly for a match between two teams that are really struggling in front of goal, Under 2.5 goals is priced at a short 1.635/8. I'm not sure that it is a value bet, but I certainly can't make a case for there being three or more goals in this game.

Combine the two selections above and you can get odds of 4.03/1 on Draw/Under 2.5 goals in the Match Odds and Over/Under 2.5 Goals market.

Half Time Score

My main bet for this game, however, will be to back a goalless first half at odds of 2.68/5. Hull have managed just three goals before the interval in their last 11 matches at any venue, while Newcastle haven't scored in the opening 45 minutes in any of their last seven away matches. And given this is a game that neither team can really afford to lose we should expect a cagey opening before either side makes a concerted effort to look for all three points.

Recommended Bet
2pts Back Half Time Score 0-0 @ 2.68/5

Jaymes Monte 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 64.0 pts
Returned: 68.85 pts
P/L: +4.85 pts