среда, 18 февраля 2015 г.

The Big Wednesday Multiple: Real to ease to German victory

Can this man lift the Champions League again?

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections...

Bet 1: Tigres (HOME) @ 1.3 (3/10) - Available on Betfair Live Video at 02:15 GMT 

Tigres are making their first appearance in the Copa Libertadores since 2012 and they couldn't have asked for much of an easier fixture.

The Mexican outfit take on Peru's, Juan Aurich, who are traditionally very poor on the road. They have lost their last six away matches in this competition and even in domestic action it's no win in seven - four defeats.

The hosts have won their last two outings - both to nil - and their win percentage in front of their own fans is 66.66% over the last 30 matches.

Bet 2: Real Madrid (AWAY) @ 1.44 (4/9) - Live on Sky Sports 5 at 19:45 GMT

Another short priced selection here but I can't see past a Real Madrid victory at Schalke in the first leg of their Champions League last 16 tie.

The Germans are only fourth in the Bundesliga and this is in a season where Dortmund are really struggling. Roberto Di Matteo's men were beaten by Eintracht Frankfurt at the weekend and they only scraped through the group with eight points.

Carlo Ancelotti's side have suffered some poor reverses of late - most notably the 4-0 thrashing at Atletico - but they are still a class above the opposition and could well be the first club to retain the Champions League.

Madrid won all three of their away games in the group stage and the last time they were in this country, they thrashed Bayern Munich 4-0.

Bet 3: Leyton Orient v Bradford (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.0 (1/1)  

Cup killers, Bradford are back in League One action this evening and I can't see anything other than goals for their trip to Leyton Orient.

After missing out in the play-offs last term, The O's are struggling down in the relegation zone this time around. They have out-scored six of the other bottom seven, but with 46 goals against, their matches this year are averaging 2.9 goals each time. A total of 17 of 29 have gone over 2.5 - including five of their last seven at Brisbane Road.

If Bradford could replicate their FA Cup performances back into the league then they would be well clear at the top. As it is, they are only ninth - four points adrift of the play-off places, albeit with a game or two in hand.

As far as the goals go, five of their last eight away from Valley Parade have seen over 2.5 backers collecting and overall their matches this season are averaging exactly 2.5 goals each time - with half going over and half going under.

Bet 4: FC Basel v Porto (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.61 (8/13) - Live on Sky Sports 1 at 19:45 GMT

Switzerland's FC Basel managed to avoid defeat at Anfield to make it this far and while a look at their recent scorelines would suggest that we could be in for a high-scoring affair here, I'm concentrating on their Champions League results only.

Paulo Sousa's team had four of their six group games finish with under 2.5 goals, with two of those even rewarding under 1.5 backers. Their last seven at St Jakob-Park have ended with two or less goals being scored and with this being the first leg of two, I expect it to be a bit cagey.

Porto have had five of their last seven away fixtures in this competition go under 2.5 goals and even in their much weaker domestic league, their three most recent matches on the road have followed suit.

Julen Lopetegui will fancy his chances of taking his side into the quarter-finals and his best chance of doing so would to keep things tight in Switzerland, before dominating proceedings at the Drago.

Recommended Multiple

Back Tigres @ 1.3 (3/10)
Back Real Madrid @ 1.44 (4/9)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Leyton Orient v Bradford @ 2.0 (1/1)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in FC Basel v Porto @ 1.61 (8/13);

The Multiple pays approximately 6.03 (5/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 6 pts
Returned: 22.38 pts
P/L: + 16.38 pts
(2014 P/L: + 48.57pts)
(2013 P/L: - 15.49 pts)

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