Football Bet of the Day: Sinking Stuttgart set for another defeat

Borussia Dortmund's Marco Reus is back on form

Kevin Hatchard's looking for his third winner in a row, and he's taking us to Germany for the latest battle in the Bundesliga's relegation dogfight...

Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund
Friday February 20, 19:30
Live on BT Sport Extra

It was a long wait, but our boys Guingamp finally came through and beat Dynamo Kiev 2-1 in the Europa League. By half-time, the Ukrainian league leaders were 1-0 up, but down to nine men after dismissals for Andriy Yarmolenko and Younes Belhanda. Yarmolenko and Belhanda clearly wanted to escape the action quickly so they could find out who killed Lucy Beale. 

For a while it seemed the hosts wouldn't be able to break through, but two goals in three minutes from Claudio Beauvue and Moustapha Diallo turned the match on its head. En Avant Guingamp indeed.

A short hop to Germany is in order, and a visit to Stuttgart gives us a chance to check in with the Borussia Dortmund renaissance. Wins over Freiburg and Mainz have dragged Jurgen Klopp's men clear of the relegation zone, and although performances are still far from complete, there is a sense that a corner has finally been turned.

The deployment of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is a central attacking role has made a big difference, as the Gabon striker has lightning pace. Marco Reus scored a goal and produced an outrageous outside-of-the-boot assist against Mainz, and his decision to sign a new long-term contract has given the whole club a huge boost.

Such fillips are in short supply at the Mercedes Benz Arena, as Stuttgart are rock-bottom of the standings. The Swabian strugglers have collected a solitary point from their four matches since the winter break, and they haven't scored a goal at home since October.

Coach Huub Stevens kept Stuttgart up last season, but his decision to sacrifice flair in the pursuit of clean sheets isn't working. Talented players like Timo Werner and Alexandru Maxim aren't being used often enough, and I haven't seen striker Vedad Ibisevic play this consistently badly since he burst onto the Bundesliga scene in 2008. The Bosnian hasn't scored a league goal in over a year.

If you look at the stats of Dortmund's season, you'd be put off backing the visitors, and you might be discouraged by news of a flu bug in the BVB camp and Klopp's wariness about the state of the Stuttgart pitch. However, having watched both teams a lot recently, I can tell you Dortmund have found the spark they've been missing, but Stuttgart are playing like they may never find theirs.

Recommended Bet
Back Borussia Dortmund -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.07n/a

2015 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 25

Points Returned: 21.64

P/L: -3.36 points